Vegas has the stronger start, but does it have enough separation to justify a sizable favorite’s price against Pittsburgh? The Golden Knights enter Saturday’s matchup at 7-2, while the Penguins arrive after letting a two-goal lead slip away in Colorado on Friday. Our projections suggest a much closer contest in shooting volume than those records might imply, putting Pittsburgh’s ability to hold up in goal at the center of this matchup.
Vegas has earned respect—and an expensive price
The latest DraftKings moneyline has Vegas at -218 and Pittsburgh at +180. The Golden Knights have won five of their last six games, including a 6-2 victory over Calgary on Thursday. Pittsburgh has lost four of its last five, most recently falling 5-2 to Colorado.
Friday’s loss showed both sides of the Penguins’ challenge. Evgeni Malkin and Bryan Rust scored 29 seconds apart to build a 2-0 lead, but Colorado answered with five straight goals, including three in the second period. Pittsburgh could generate an early advantage; sustaining it was another matter.
Vegas’ winning start has also translated into a betting profit, though not an enormous one: flat one-unit moneyline bets on the Golden Knights across their first nine games returned 1.63 units. That distinction matters at -218. Seven wins in nine games is impressive, but today’s price still deserves its own assessment.
The shot forecast leaves Pittsburgh a route into the game
Our shot projections call for roughly 28 Pittsburgh shots and 29 Vegas shots. That’s a narrow difference in expected shooting volume, rather than a forecast of Vegas overwhelming the Penguins with shots on goal. We also rate Pittsburgh’s attack a B against a B+ for Vegas, although the gap is wider at the other end: our team defensive grades are C for Pittsburgh and B+ for Vegas.
Sergei Murashov offers Pittsburgh a meaningful counterweight. Across his three most recent appearances, he has a .911 save percentage, including a 45-save performance on 47 shots against Columbus. His most recent outing was tougher—four goals allowed on 19 shots against Chicago—so that small sample contains both a strong rescue effort and a difficult night.
Carter Hart has a .908 save percentage across his five most recent appearances for Vegas. He stopped 28 of 30 shots against Calgary on Thursday. Those recent save percentages are close, even though Vegas has the better team defensive evaluation; Pittsburgh’s case for staying competitive rests partly on Murashov delivering something closer to his Columbus performance.
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How that shapes the 6.5-goal total
The posted total is 6.5. Vegas has scored 11 goals across its last two games, while Pittsburgh has allowed five in each of its last two. That gives the scoring discussion real substance, especially with the Penguins playing on consecutive nights after traveling from Colorado to Las Vegas.
There are reasons not to carry that scoring pace straight into this matchup, though. Pittsburgh hasn’t scored more than three goals in any of its last six games, and Hart has allowed two or fewer in three of his last four appearances. The nearly even shot forecast gives Pittsburgh a way to compete, but its recent scoring makes its contribution to the total a real question. Vegas’ recent production supports a lively game; another steady Hart performance could keep the Penguins from matching that pace.
Vegas has the stronger overall case through its recent results and more balanced team grades. What makes the price worth examining is that our shot forecast shows little separation, and Murashov has already produced one standout outing in his small recent sample. Pittsburgh’s most convincing route is to turn that competitive shooting volume into a close game with better work in goal—not to rely on outscoring a Vegas team that has put up 11 goals in two games. At 6.5, the tension is between Vegas’ scoring surge and a Pittsburgh attack that hasn’t been keeping pace.
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