Montreal has the stronger attack in our analysis, but Nashville could keep Jakub Dobes busy despite the Canadiens’ favorite status. That’s the interesting tension in Thursday’s matchup: Montreal’s scoring weapons give it an advantage in our attacking assessment, while the Predators’ slightly higher projected shot count offers a different route into the game.
The favorite has something to prove
DraftKings’ moneyline prices put Montreal at -180 and Nashville at +150. Our grades broadly align with that ordering: Montreal earns a B for its attack compared with Nashville’s C. There’s less separation at the other end, where both teams receive a C+ defensive grade with Dobes in Montreal’s net and Juuse Saros in Nashville’s.
Montreal’s 6-4 loss to Carolina on Tuesday is a useful counterweight to the favorite’s price. Four goals weren’t enough to get the Canadiens through that game. Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield and Chris Kreider give Montreal recognizable threats up front, but keeping Nashville’s chances manageable matters just as much as producing at the other end.
There’s also a relevant availability update in goal: Sam Montembeault is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury reported Wednesday. With Dobes in net for this matchup, Montembeault’s status adds context to Montreal’s goaltending options without establishing how long he’ll be unavailable.
Nashville’s route into the game
The Predators showed both their scoring potential and their vulnerability Tuesday. They built a three-goal lead before Toronto rallied to beat them 5-4 in overtime. Steven Stamkos and Nils Hoglander each scored twice, Filip Forsberg added two assists, and Saros made 33 saves. Nashville produced enough offense to build a winning position; holding onto the advantage was the problem.
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Our shot projections give the Predators about 28 shots to Montreal’s 26. Those extra attempts give Nashville a plausible way to stay involved, though their danger will matter more than the count alone. Montreal’s better attacking grade doesn’t come with an expected advantage in shooting volume.
What matters most
Montreal’s strongest case is its better attacking assessment, while Nashville’s counterweight is a slightly busier shooting outlook and several forwards coming off productive games. Neither team has a clear edge in our defensive grades, and both just lost despite scoring four goals. That puts the focus on what each team gets from its opportunities—and how well Dobes, Saros and the skaters in front of them limit the damage at the other end. Montreal’s attack supports its favorite status, but Nashville has a credible route to making the Canadiens work for it.
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