Las Vegas and New York both got useful passing performances last Sunday, then watched late rallies fall short. The Raiders trailed the Rams 28-6 at halftime; the Jets were down 21-7 against Miami. With New York a 1.5-point favorite in their meeting, the sharper question is which team can turn its offensive production into a competitive game from the start, rather than another attempt to recover lost ground.
The Raiders’ passing game needs more help
Kirk Cousins threw for 295 yards and two touchdowns in the Raiders’ 35-21 loss to Los Angeles. Tre Tucker caught five passes for 103 yards, and Ashton Jeanty added eight catches for 61 yards. Both caught touchdown passes. Las Vegas has still lost four straight after starting 3-0.
The lack of balance was striking. Jeanty and Mike Washington Jr. combined for only 42 rushing yards on 14 carries, while the Rams’ Kyren Williams and Blake Corum ran for a combined 192 yards and two touchdowns. Las Vegas also failed on two fourth downs in Rams territory. There was enough passing production to mount a response, but too little elsewhere to overcome the early deficit.
Brock Bowers was limited in Wednesday’s practice with a calf issue. His progress matters to a receiving group that already leaned on Tucker and Jeanty last week. The update describes practice participation, with his Sunday availability still to be established.
New York showed more balance, but wasted scoring chances
Geno Smith completed 23 of 30 passes for 287 yards and three touchdowns in the Jets’ 28-25 loss to Miami. Mason Taylor caught two scoring passes, Omar Cooper Jr. caught the other, and Braelon Allen rushed for 104 yards. Cooper also supplied receptions of 52 and 60 yards, giving New York an explosive element beyond its ground game.
Yet the Jets left points behind. Smith was intercepted with New York at the Miami 21, Jason Sanders missed a 40-yard field goal, and another possession that reached the Dolphins’ 1 ended with a field goal after two unsuccessful runs and a sack. Those failures help explain how a productive offense ended up needing a late touchdown and two-point conversion just to get within three.
The defensive line has a relevant concern, too. T’Vondre Sweat left the Miami game with a knee injury and did not return. Wednesday’s report described him as week-to-week and unlikely to play against the Raiders. His status is worth tracking alongside a defense that allowed Miami touchdowns on its first two drives.
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Different routes to offense shape the spread and total
Our team projections favor Las Vegas through the air, at about 227 passing yards against 183 for New York. The ground outlook reverses that comparison: roughly 112 rushing yards for the Jets and 74 for the Raiders. We also rate the Raiders’ offense a little higher, B against B-, so the narrow New York favorite role deserves a closer look than either team’s losing record alone provides.
DraftKings’ total is 45.5, with Las Vegas coming off five straight games that went Over. The Raiders allowed at least 30 points in each of their last four losses. Last week’s passing production on both sides and New York’s ability to generate long gains give that scoring discussion real substance.
The restraint is execution. Las Vegas’ failed fourth downs and New York’s interception and goal-line stall show how available scoring chances can disappear. Four of the Jets’ seven games this season went Under, and our passing outlook for New York is more modest than Smith’s latest performance. The total depends on whether these offenses can retain their useful production while finishing possessions more reliably.
The Jets have the clearer rushing outlook; the Raiders bring the stronger passing projection and slightly higher offensive grade. Neither case removes the defensive problems and missed chances that shaped last week’s losses. For a spread this small, avoiding another deep early deficit and preserving scoring opportunities offer a more useful guide than the late rally alone.
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