The Raiders have scored at least 26 points in each of their first four games, yet they head into Sunday’s matchup with the Patriots as underdogs. That makes this an interesting test of Las Vegas’ fast start: can Kirk Cousins and the Raiders keep producing against a defense we rate highly, or will New England turn its breakthrough win in Buffalo into something more consistent?
A tougher test for the Raiders’ attack
Las Vegas fell to Kansas City 30-27 last Sunday, but its passing game gave the Chiefs plenty to handle. Cousins threw for 365 yards and two touchdowns, while Brock Bowers caught six passes for 86 yards and a score. The less encouraging part was the ground game: just 72 yards at 2.8 yards per carry.
That split matters against New England. Our grades put both offenses at B, but the Patriots’ defense earns an A- compared with the Raiders’ C. The clearest separation in our assessment is on that side of the ball, rather than a big difference between the two attacks.
Our rushing projections also suggest different paths for these teams: roughly 130 yards for New England and 75 for Las Vegas. That gives the Patriots a stronger outlook on the ground, while the Raiders’ recent success through the air becomes especially important if rushing production remains limited.
Both teams have significant running-back injury questions. Ashton Jeanty is questionable with an ankle injury, and Rhamondre Stevenson is questionable with a knee injury. New England also has cornerbacks Christian Gonzalez and Carlton Davis III, plus defensive tackle Christian Barmore, marked questionable. Those availability concerns matter when weighing the Patriots’ strong defensive assessment against Las Vegas’ productive passing game.
The spread asks more of New England
DraftKings has New England favored by 3.5 points, so a field-goal win wouldn’t be enough to cover. The Patriots have the stronger overall grade in our analysis, but the Raiders have been competitive enough to cover the spread in all four games of their 2026 regular-season start, including their first loss last week. New England has covered twice, lost once against the spread and pushed once across its four games.
The Patriots’ best recent argument came Sunday, when they edged Buffalo 29-26. Drake Maye threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns despite two first-half turnovers, with Romeo Doubs catching two touchdown passes. It was a substantial rebound after New England scored 10, 20 and six points in its first three games. Sustaining that improvement matters more to the favorite’s case than simply carrying momentum from one win.
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Why the 45.5-point total isn’t a simple read
The posted total sits at 45.5 points, and the evidence pulls in different directions. Las Vegas’ steady scoring and New England’s offensive rebound make a higher-scoring game plausible. Both teams’ games last Sunday finished above this matchup’s threshold: the Raiders and Chiefs combined for 57 points, while the Patriots and Bills combined for 55.
The counterweight is New England’s uneven scoring before Buffalo, along with its strong defensive grade. Three of the Patriots’ four games this season finished below their respective sportsbook totals; the Raiders split two over and two under. The useful question at 45.5 is whether Maye’s rebound continues while New England makes Las Vegas work harder for its points—not whether last Sunday’s scores simply repeat.
What matters most
New England’s strongest case is its defensive advantage and stronger projected rushing output. Las Vegas answers with a passing game that just challenged Kansas City and four straight games of beating spread expectations. For the Patriots to create the separation the spread demands, slowing Cousins and Bowers needs to come alongside another productive game from Maye. The defensive injury updates are especially important to that assessment: New England’s ability to limit the Raiders through the air is the clearest matchup advantage in our grades, but its personnel questions and uneven offensive start keep this from being a straightforward favorite’s case.
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