The Rangers have won four straight, but Washington presents an interesting test: can New York keep winning if the Capitals generate more shots? Our projections give Washington a modest shooting advantage, while Igor Shesterkin’s early results offer a strong counterweight. That tension helps explain why the Rangers’ 4-1 start doesn’t settle the betting question.
A winning streak meets a different matchup
New York beat the Islanders 5-2 on Tuesday, following wins over Utah, Detroit and Tampa Bay. Across those four consecutive wins, the Rangers scored 16 goals and allowed just five. They’ve found more than one way to win, too: a 2-0 result in Detroit sits alongside three games in which they scored at least four.
Washington is 2-1 after beating Pittsburgh 5-3 on Wednesday. The Capitals also scored five against Carolina, though Tampa Bay held them to one in their other game. It’s a promising start for their attack, with enough variation to keep those two big scoring nights in perspective.
DraftKings has Washington favored at -142, with New York at +120. Our grades offer some support for that ordering: we give the Capitals’ attack a B and the Rangers’ a C, while both teams earn a B defensively. But New York’s recent results are a meaningful challenge to any easy reading of that gap. We rate Washington’s attack more highly in this matchup; the Rangers have been producing anyway.
The shooting edge runs into Shesterkin
Our shooting projections put Washington at roughly 28 shots and New York at 25. That’s a modest advantage in shooting volume, not an overwhelming mismatch or a measure of chance quality. It also puts the spotlight on the expected goalie matchup.
Shesterkin has stopped 92.6% of the shots he’s faced across his four recent appearances this season, allowing seven goals. He made 17 saves against the Islanders on Tuesday and 28 against Utah on Sunday. Washington’s challenge is to turn its projected extra shots into scoring against a goalie who’s started well.
Logan Thompson has been effective, too, stopping 92.1% across his two recent appearances for Washington. He made 27 saves in Wednesday’s win over Pittsburgh after stopping 31 shots against Carolina. Those are small samples, especially Thompson’s, but they give both teams a credible goaltending counterweight to the recent scoring.
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What that means for the 5.5-goal total
The posted total is 5.5, so six combined goals would clear it. Both teams have recently shown they can contribute heavily toward that threshold: New York scored four or more in three of its last four games, and Washington scored five in two of its first three.
The restraint comes from the other side of the matchup. New York has allowed two goals or fewer in each game of its winning streak, and both expected goalies have save percentages above .920 across their recent early-season appearances. Our modest shooting projections add another reason to be cautious about expecting a shootout. Recent high-scoring wins make six goals plausible, but the scoring still has to come against goalies who’ve been effective so far.
The key question is Washington’s return on its shots
Washington’s case as the favorite rests on its stronger attacking grade and projected shooting edge. New York’s answer is more concrete than momentum alone: four straight wins with consistently low goals allowed. The modest size of Washington’s shooting advantage makes its return on those attempts especially important. More shots would strengthen the Capitals’ opportunity, but converting them against Shesterkin is the tougher part—and the part that matters most to both their favorite status and the six-goal threshold.
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