Ottawa has the stronger opportunity outlook, but the Rangers arrive with nine goals in their last two games. That’s the tension in this matchup: can the Senators turn an expected edge in shots and power-play chances into separation against a New York attack that has found some scoring?
Ottawa has more ways to generate chances
DraftKings makes Ottawa a modest -125 moneyline favorite, with the Rangers at +105. That modest gap fits with our outlook: our projections put the Senators at roughly 28 shots and New York at 25, along with 3.4 power-play opportunities for Ottawa against 2.6 for the Rangers. The shooting gap points to more attempts reaching the net, while the extra power-play opportunities give Ottawa another potential route to scoring.
We also give the Senators’ attack a B grade compared with New York’s C. That adds support for Ottawa’s offensive advantage, although the Rangers’ latest results offer a reason not to overstate the difference.
New York’s attack is the counterweight
The Rangers beat Anaheim 5-2 before losing 5-4 in Toronto on Thursday. Adam Fox supplied four assists in that loss, and Mika Zibanejad had a goal and an assist. New York didn’t get the result, but its leading contributors helped keep it close until Toronto’s winner with 26.3 seconds remaining.
Both teams have won six of their last 10 games, so recent wins alone don’t separate them. Ottawa’s latest defeat also deserves a closer look: the Senators lost 6-2 to San Jose on Thursday, but the Sharks added two empty-net goals. Ottawa generated 41 shots, with Tim Stutzle and Jordan Spence scoring. The Senators had plenty of shooting opportunities, even though only two became goals—a useful reminder of the gap between volume and production.
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What that means for the 5.5-goal total
The posted total is 5.5 goals. Ottawa’s projected advantage in power-play chances and New York’s recent scoring both give the higher-scoring case some substance. Still, the season’s betting results pull in different directions: seven of Ottawa’s 11 games have gone under their respective totals, while seven of the Rangers’ 12 have gone over. Those results came against different thresholds, so they offer context rather than a direct answer at 5.5.
There’s also evidence that New York can get a quieter game in net. Dylan Garand allowed two goals against Anaheim and one against Columbus in his two appearances before Toronto. If he starts, those performances are a useful counterweight to focusing only on Thursday’s five goals allowed. Ottawa’s 41-shot, two-goal night offers another reason to be careful about turning an opportunity advantage into a higher-scoring expectation.
The matchup takeaway
Ottawa’s clearest advantage is the prospect of more shots and power-play opportunities, backed by our stronger assessment of its attack. New York’s nine goals in two games are the main challenge to that case. For the moneyline, the Senators have support for an offensive opportunity edge, not an assumption of a comfortable win. At 5.5, Ottawa’s ability to get more production from that volume matters more than either team’s last score alone.
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