Baltimore’s latest loss needs two pieces of context: Lamar Jackson was absent, and the Ravens turned a 13-0 halftime lead into a 35-13 defeat. Jackson is now reported to be on track to play at Buffalo after handling the first-team work in Wednesday’s practice. That gives this matchup a different offensive outlook, but it doesn’t erase the second-half problems Baltimore must solve against a Bills team favored by three.
Jackson’s progress changes the offensive picture
Jackson missed three straight games with an ankle injury before this week’s encouraging practice update. His game status remains worth following as Baltimore prepares for a different opponent after two straight division losses.
Baltimore lost 35-13 to Cincinnati last Sunday after keeping the Bengals scoreless for a half. Tyler Huntley threw for 215 yards before halftime, including 120 to Zay Flowers, who scored on a 48-yard catch-and-run. Yet the Ravens settled for two short field goals alongside that touchdown, then failed to score after the break.
When Cincinnati began answering, Baltimore couldn’t keep up. The Bengals scored five second-half touchdowns, while a Ravens possession that reached the Cincinnati 12 ended with a fourth-down incompletion. Jackson’s progress offers a reason to reassess an offense that scored 10 and 13 points in its last two games. Protecting a lead, though, also requires more resistance than Baltimore provided after halftime.
Buffalo returns after finding a late answer in Las Vegas
The Bills’ last game before their bye was a 33-30 win over the Raiders on October 18. Josh Allen threw for 255 yards and two touchdowns, while James Cook rushed for 95 yards and caught three passes for another 58. After Las Vegas tied the game at 23, Cook’s touchdown run and a Tyler Bass field goal gave Buffalo enough separation to hold on.
Buffalo also avoided a turnover for the first time that season after committing nine across its previous three games. That cleaner performance helped a balanced offense finish the job. The concern is that the Raiders still threw for 313 yards and made Buffalo work through the final minutes. The Bills have won their last two games by three points apiece.
Two receiving options remain worth monitoring. DJ Moore, dealing with a shoulder issue, and Dalton Kincaid, managing a chest issue, were both in non-contact jerseys for a second straight day Thursday. Those practice observations leave uncertainty around their availability for Sunday.
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Strong offenses put the 54.5 total in focus
We give both offenses A+ grades and both defenses B grades. Our team projections show different strengths within that close comparison: about 169 rushing yards for Baltimore against 148 for Buffalo, while the Bills have the higher passing outlook at roughly 224 yards to 193. Neither team needs the same offensive route to put pressure on the other.
DraftKings’ total is 54.5, and five of Buffalo’s six games this season have gone Over. Cook’s rushing and receiving production, Allen’s passing and Baltimore’s difficulty stopping Cincinnati all give the scoring case substance. Jackson’s potential return adds another important change from the Ravens’ latest game.
There are useful restraints on that picture. Both teams receive solid defensive grades, Baltimore’s first-half opportunities against Cincinnati too often ended in field goals, and Buffalo’s receiving practice updates remain unresolved. The total calls for evaluating how fully Baltimore’s offense rebounds and whether these attacks can finish drives against defenses we also rate well, rather than simply extending Buffalo’s recent scores.
Buffalo has the more convincing recent evidence of closing a tight game. Baltimore’s case improves with Jackson trending toward a return and a strong team rushing outlook, but its second-half collapse remains the main challenge to that case. For the spread, the clearest issue is whether a more productive Ravens offense can be matched by a defense capable of making Buffalo’s late answers harder to find.
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