Atlanta’s offense has found a spark just as Baltimore faces a major question at quarterback. The Falcons have scored 80 points in back-to-back wins, while Lamar Jackson is questionable after leaving the Ravens’ latest victory with an ankle injury. Atlanta is a three-point favorite, but its recent surge needs to be weighed against Baltimore’s offensive potential—and the injuries that could change it.
Atlanta’s turnaround has substance
The Falcons didn’t just pile up points against New Orleans on Monday. They rushed for 205 yards in a 45-24 win, with Bijan Robinson contributing 145 yards and two touchdowns and Brian Robinson Jr. adding three rushing scores. Michael Penix Jr. completed 15 of 20 passes for 223 yards and a touchdown, giving Atlanta an efficient passing complement to its ground game.
That followed a 35-14 win at Green Bay in Penix’s return to action. His return gives the turnaround useful quarterback context, though two wins are still a short stretch. Across Atlanta’s four recent games this season, the Falcons also had losses in which they scored just 13 and three points. The improvement deserves attention, but it’s not yet a reason to expect another 40-point performance.
Our team projections put Atlanta closer to 140 rushing yards this week, well below Monday’s 205. We also rate Baltimore’s defense a B-, compared with Atlanta’s C+. The Falcons have a plausible path through another productive rushing performance and efficient throws from Penix, but the matchup calls for more restraint than simply carrying Monday’s numbers forward.
Baltimore’s strongest case comes with an important condition
Jackson threw for 222 yards and two touchdowns before leaving Baltimore’s 24-18 win over Tennessee on Sunday. The Ravens scored all 24 points before halftime and none afterward with Tyler Huntley at quarterback. In the AP recap, coach Jesse Minter said Baltimore played more conservatively because of the weather and its lead, so the second-half slowdown wasn’t a clean measure of the quarterback change alone.
The Thursday injury update has Jackson questionable with an ankle injury after missing practice. Zay Flowers, who caught eight passes for 118 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee, is also questionable with a foot injury and was limited Thursday. Those are meaningful concerns for the passing combination that helped Baltimore build its lead. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey is questionable as well and missed Thursday’s practice with a calf/hamstring issue, adding an availability concern on the other side of the ball.
With Jackson at quarterback, our grades give Baltimore’s offense an A, ahead of Atlanta’s B+. Our projections also give the Ravens the larger rushing output—roughly 170 yards—and about 360 total yards versus Atlanta’s 340. That’s a credible challenge to the Falcons’ favorite status, but it depends on the quarterback context. If Jackson can’t play, Baltimore’s offensive comparison would need a fresh assessment rather than carrying these numbers over to Huntley.
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What matters for the 43.5-point total
Atlanta’s recent scoring gives the 43.5-point total an obvious source of upward pressure. Its win over New Orleans showed it could finish drives on the ground without needing a huge passing workload. Baltimore’s A offensive grade also points to a demanding assignment for Atlanta’s lower-rated defense if Jackson plays.
The counterweight is that our rushing projection for Atlanta is substantially below its latest result, while Baltimore’s quarterback and leading receiver both have fresh injury concerns. The useful question is whether both attacks can sustain drives—not whether Atlanta can repeat five rushing touchdowns. Jackson’s status matters to the total as well as the spread, making the next availability update more useful than a simple recent-over trend.
The takeaway
Atlanta’s surge has more behind it than two big scorelines: productive rushing and efficient play from Penix give the Falcons a credible offensive foundation. Still, our projections temper expectations for another ground-game explosion, and Baltimore’s stronger offensive evaluation makes the Ravens a substantial counterweight. The most important next step is checking Jackson’s and Flowers’ availability before judging whether the spread and total still fit this matchup. Atlanta’s recent points alone aren’t enough to settle either market.
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