Seattle already showed how dangerous this matchup can get for Detroit, winning their first meeting 6-3 on October 9. Tuesday night’s rematch brings a different question: can the Kraken repeat that scoring success against Daniil Tarasov, who has stopped 55 of 57 shots across three recent appearances? With Seattle only a slight sportsbook favorite and Detroit coming off consecutive wins, the first meeting is useful background—not the whole story.
A close price despite Seattle’s first win
DraftKings’ current moneylines have Seattle at -115 and Detroit at -105, leaving little separation between the teams. The Kraken have the better record at 5-3-1, compared with Detroit’s 3-3-2, and return home after a 3-1-1 road trip. Still, that trip ended with two losses, including Saturday’s 8-3 defeat at Florida.
Detroit arrives with consecutive wins. The Red Wings beat Philadelphia 2-1 on Thursday, then rallied past San Jose 4-3 in a shootout on Saturday. Alex DeBrincat tied that game with 1:33 remaining, and Lucas Raymond supplied the shootout’s only goal. DeBrincat had five goals through that game, giving Detroit a productive scoring threat to build around.
Our shot projections give Detroit a modest volume advantage: roughly 29 shots on goal to Seattle’s 26. That offers a plausible route for the visitors to make this rematch more competitive, though the extra volume doesn’t necessarily mean better chances. Seattle’s six-goal performance in the first meeting remains a meaningful counterweight.
The goalies complicate a 6.5-goal total
Seattle’s games have gone Over their sportsbook totals in seven of nine games this season. Flat one-unit bets on those Overs would have returned a historical profit of 5.01 units. That scoring pattern makes the current total of 6.5 worth a closer look, especially after the Kraken allowed eight goals Saturday.
Joey Daccord, Seattle’s expected starter, has a .882 save percentage across his last five appearances. His latest outing accounts for eight of the 18 goals he allowed in that span, so the rough overall number includes one particularly damaging night. He also had two appearances with only one goal allowed, showing how uneven those results have been.
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Tarasov’s recent performances present the strongest challenge to simply expecting another high-scoring meeting. He has stopped 55 of 57 shots across three appearances this season, a .965 save percentage, including 17 of 18 against Philadelphia on Thursday. He also stopped eight of nine shots in relief during the first Seattle matchup. It’s a small sample, but Detroit now gets to lean on him from the start rather than only for part of the game.
At 6.5, the scoring outlook pulls in both directions: Seattle’s games have regularly produced plenty of goals, and Daccord’s recent results give Detroit encouragement, while Tarasov’s work offers a credible brake on the Kraken. Our shot projections suggest a modest Detroit volume edge rather than an overwhelming barrage from either side.
What matters most in the rematch
Seattle has the stronger early record and the head-to-head win, but Detroit’s consecutive wins and modest projected shot advantage make a more competitive rematch plausible. The biggest change is Tarasov getting the start after allowing only one of Seattle’s six goals in relief during the first meeting. His limited workload leaves uncertainty, and Daccord’s uneven results show why one rough night shouldn’t define a goalie’s outlook. For this closely priced rematch and its 6.5-goal total, Tarasov’s ability to sustain that strong work over a full start matters more than treating the first meeting as the scoring baseline.
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