Jake Oettinger stopped all 26 Buffalo shots in the first meeting with Dallas. If you’re backing the Sabres in the rematch, Tage Thompson’s assist prop fits a game where Buffalo creates better looks for the players around him.
Roope Hintz’s assist under offers a different way to look at a Buffalo win. He has gone without an assist more often in Dallas losses, and he can still score a goal without spoiling the under.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tage Thompson Over 0.5 assists |
+165 | 87.5% 7 of 8 Sabres wins |
42.1% 8 of 19 Sabres games |
| Roope Hintz Under 0.5 assists |
−175 | 83.3% 25 of 30 Stars losses |
62.0% 44 of 71 Stars games |
Tage Thompson to record an assist
Thompson had two power-play assists in the 7–6 win in Anaheim. In the win over Columbus, he and Zach Benson set up Josh Norris at even strength. A Dallas penalty gives him another chance to create a goal, though he can get there with his usual five-on-five shifts.
Thompson scored twice without an assist in Buffalo’s win over Los Angeles, and he had an assist in just 24 of his 50 Sabres wins last season. The plus price is worth a look if you expect him to draw coverage and get the puck to a teammate with room. If you expect him to do most of the finishing himself, the assist is a tougher fit.
Roope Hintz under 0.5 assists
In October, Hintz scored on the power play against Buffalo but finished without an assist. Thursday’s loss to Winnipeg showed how quickly the under can go the other way. Hintz found Arttu Hyry for a first-period one-timer, the only time he’s recorded an assist in a Dallas loss this season.
I’d look at the under if you expect Buffalo to protect the middle of the ice and make Hintz finish plays himself. If Dallas can get Hyry or Jason Robertson open for quick shots off his passes, one touch can be enough to beat it.
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Which prop fits a Sabres win?
Thompson’s over fits a Buffalo win where his passing helps unlock the offense. Hintz’s under makes more sense if your stronger read is that the Sabres can keep Dallas from turning passes through the middle into clean looks.
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