Seattle has scored at least 29 points in four straight games, but bringing that production to Denver is a different challenge. We rate both defenses highly, and the Seahawks’ latest shootout leaned heavily on turnovers and short fields. The interesting question is how much of Seattle’s scoring surge can carry over when its offense has to build longer drives against the Broncos.
Look beyond Sunday’s final scores
Seattle lost 32-29 to San Francisco on Sunday in a game featuring seven combined turnovers. Neither team had a touchdown drive longer than 25 yards before the 49ers took possession late in the third quarter. That matters here: Seattle’s latest high-scoring game wasn’t simply two offenses marching the length of the field.
Denver beat the Chargers 23-17 on Sunday with 13 unanswered fourth-quarter points, but Bo Nix finished with just 123 passing yards. The Broncos’ defense recorded five sacks and helped create the late opportunities. Denver showed it could win without a big passing day, though that result came against a Chargers offensive line featuring four rookies.
Seattle has the offensive advantage—and an important concern
Our analysis gives Seattle’s offense an A- with Sam Darnold at quarterback, compared with a B+ for Denver’s offense with Nix. Both defenses receive A+ grades. Our yardage projections also give Seattle a modest advantage: roughly 330 total yards against 300 for Denver, including about 110 rushing yards against 95. That gives Seattle a plausible path through steadier production rather than relying on another turnover-heavy game.
The receiving and secondary injuries are worth watching. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Seattle’s top receiver on the depth chart, was estimated as limited Monday with an ankle injury. Denver listed Riley Moss as limited and Pat Surtain II as a nonparticipant on its estimated Monday practice report. Neither cornerback had been ruled out for Thursday. Their availability, along with Smith-Njigba’s, matters to the strength of Seattle’s passing matchup.
At the current three-point spread, Seattle needs more than a win to cover. Across their first five games this season, the Seahawks have covered once, with two losses against the spread and two pushes. Denver has covered three of five. Seattle’s recent scoring is a reason to take its attack seriously, but it hasn’t consistently translated into covering the number.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Seahawks vs. Broncos picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
A 40.5 total meets conflicting scoring signals
The current total is 40.5. Seattle’s last three games have gone over their respective totals, while four of Denver’s first five games this season have stayed under. Those histories pull in opposite directions, and Sunday’s turnover-heavy Seattle game helps explain why the defensive grades and recent scores can look so different.
Our passing projections are fairly modest—about 220 yards for Seattle and 200 for Denver—and we rate both defenses highly. Those factors give Denver’s lower-scoring profile some weight at 40.5. The counterweight is Seattle’s sustained scoring production. If Denver is again without Surtain or Moss, that would add to the concerns facing its pass defense. Short fields like those Seattle saw Sunday could also change the scoring environment quickly, without requiring either offense to put together a big yardage day.
What matters most
Seattle’s stronger offensive assessment and modest projected yardage advantage give its scoring surge a credible foundation. Denver’s highly rated defense is the main counterweight, but Sunday’s five sacks came against an inexperienced offensive line, and its cornerbacks’ availability remains worth watching. The most useful distinction for both the spread and total is whether Seattle can sustain longer drives rather than depend on short fields. Smith-Njigba’s availability matters to that route: the recent point totals deserve attention, but they’re less persuasive on their own than the matchup between Seattle’s passing options and the secondary Denver can field Thursday.
We break down every matchup
For sharp picks, current odds and model projections across the league’s games, take a look at our NFL betting board.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.