Los Angeles has scored just once in six of its last 10 games this season, yet Ottawa is only a slight moneyline favorite Thursday. The Kings’ route to a better result begins with giving their goaltending more offensive help. The Senators bring the stronger record and a recent productive stretch from Drake Batherson, but their own scoring has swung sharply from game to game. With the total at 5.5, that uneven production makes the matchup more complicated than the standings suggest.
The Kings need more from their chances
Samuel Helenius gave Los Angeles an early lead Tuesday in Chicago, but the Kings did not score again in a 2-1 loss. They also failed to capitalize on a double-minor penalty to Chicago’s Sam Rinzel. A promising opening became another night when one goal was not enough.
The Kings had scored six against the Rangers the night before and five at Washington earlier in that trip. Those wins show there is more available than the repeated one-goal results, but sustaining it has been the problem. Los Angeles finished that five-game trip 3-2 and now returns home with only three wins in 11 games overall.
Darcy Kuemper is the expected goalie after Anton Forsberg played Tuesday. Kuemper has stopped 128 of 140 shots across his latest five completed appearances this season, a .914 save percentage. That sample includes a 20-minute appearance against Edmonton. Our defensive grade for the Kings is A-, while we rate their offense C-. That contrast captures the challenge: keeping games manageable has to be accompanied by enough scoring to finish them.
Ottawa’s power play offers a specific threat
Batherson set up Shane Pinto’s tying power-play goal early in the third period of Tuesday’s 4-1 loss at Vegas. That gave Batherson eight points in five games through Tuesday. Vegas retook the lead later in the period and added two empty-net goals, so the final three-goal margin was wider than the contest before Ottawa pulled its goalie.
The Senators scored seven against the Rangers in their previous game but only two against San Jose before that. Their 8-5 record and six wins across the last 10 games this season are stronger than Los Angeles’s results, without making the latest one-goal outing irrelevant.
For the Kings, discipline is a practical part of the matchup. Two Joel Armia penalties helped create Chicago’s tying power-play goal Tuesday; Ottawa’s latest scoring breakthrough also came with the extra man. Batherson’s recent contribution gives that concern a specific player connection rather than just a general warning about penalties.
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A close price and competing scoring signals
DraftKings has Ottawa at -118 and Los Angeles at -102. The small price gap puts the Kings’ ability to produce offense beside their stronger recent goalie sample. Samuel Ersson is expected for Ottawa after Jonas Johansson played at Vegas. Ersson’s latest five appearances, including two relief outings, produced an .835 save percentage on 97 shots. Both goalies remain unconfirmed starters, and these limited samples describe recent performance rather than a guaranteed advantage.
At this total, the Kings’ recurring one-goal games and Kuemper’s recent saves provide meaningful restraints on scoring. Seven of Los Angeles’s 11 games this season went Under their respective totals, as did eight of Ottawa’s 13. But the Kings’ five- and six-goal wins, Ottawa’s seven-goal game against the Rangers and Ersson’s recent results all challenge a simple low-scoring assumption.
The most useful test is whether Los Angeles can turn its occasional offensive bursts into enough consistent support for Kuemper, while avoiding the penalties that give Ottawa’s power play an opening. The Kings have evidence of both the capacity to score and the cost of failing to repeat it. That distinction matters more at these close moneyline prices than assuming Ottawa’s better record settles the matchup.
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