Darnell Nurse’s busiest shooting games for San Jose have mostly come in defeats. That gives Senators backers an interesting way to approach Saturday’s visit to the Sharks: allow a San Jose defenseman to keep shooting while asking Ottawa to win.
These Senators parlay picks start with a hypothetical Ottawa win and compare that idea with two alternatives built around Collin Graf or Michael Misa finishing without an assist. The shots line carries the lighter price and the shortest track record. The assist unders offer longer histories, with different costs and opportunities to weigh before choosing a supporting prop.
Senators parlay picks: shots or a quiet passing line
The table compares each player’s record in Sharks losses with all his completed San Jose appearances from October 1, 2025 through October 30, 2026, using the same dates and participation rules for both columns. Nurse has only 13 games for this club in that window. These are historical hit rates, not today’s probabilities. The individual DraftKings prices can change before the game.
| Player & prop | Odds | In Sharks losses | All Sharks games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Darnell Nurse 2+ shots on goal |
−110 | 85.7% 6 of 7 losses |
53.8% 7 of 13 appearances |
| Collin Graf Under 0.5 assists |
−475 | 91.8% 45 of 49 losses |
76.8% 73 of 95 appearances |
| Michael Misa Under 0.5 assists |
−340 | 84.8% 28 of 33 losses |
74.6% 44 of 59 appearances |
Darnell Nurse: 2+ shots on goal at −110
Nurse has reached two shots in six of the seven Sharks losses he’s played in, compared with just one of his six San Jose wins. His latest loss, against Buffalo, brought three shots in 23:54. His most recent game, a win over Vancouver, brought one shot in 23:01.
Those similar workloads make the difference in shots worth a look. He’s averaging a little over 21 minutes with the Sharks and is listed on their expected first defense pair. There’s regular ice time behind the idea, even though those minutes haven’t consistently produced shots in every game.
The price also makes the two-shot line more interesting than the one-shot alternative at −475. The one-shot target cleared in all seven losses; two shots cleared in six. Taking the higher target at −110 adds the risk of a one-shot finish, but gives a much larger individual payout. That extra risk showed up in the recent Boston defeat: Nurse finished with one shot despite playing 20:04.
He had no shots in 21:52 when San Jose beat Ottawa earlier this month. That was a Sharks win, so it sits outside the losing-game record, but it’s still a useful reminder that this opponent hasn’t automatically generated shooting chances for him. With only 13 San Jose appearances, this is the most tentative pattern of the three. The lighter price is the reason to consider it; six successful losses alone can’t establish how often it will happen next.
Collin Graf: under 0.5 assists at −475
Graf has the strongest longer record here: no assists in 45 of 49 Sharks losses, including all seven this season. The restriction leaves room for him to score. In San Jose’s March defeat to Ottawa, he had a goal and no assists, which would have cleared this line while beating a no-point bet.
There’s a substantial price for that room. DraftKings had Graf under 0.5 points at −230, compared with −475 for no assists. The cheaper point under asks for a completely scoreless game. If you’re comfortable allowing him a goal, the assist under fits that view, but adds much less to the individual payout.
Graf is listed beside Macklin Celebrini on the expected first line, and his latest appearance lasted 17:42. His season average is around 15 minutes, about a minute below his older San Jose games, but the expected assignment gives him a skilled scoring partner. One successful setup is enough to lose this bet.
His only assist this season came against Ottawa, during the Sharks’ 6–2 win. He finished with a goal and an assist in 19:32. That game challenges the idea of an easy matchup-based under even though San Jose won it. He’s also had an assist in a Sharks loss, including an April game against Nashville in 17:03 without any power-play time. His passing doesn’t disappear when the team loses.
Michael Misa: under 0.5 assists at −340
Misa provides a less expensive route to the same no-assist outcome. He’s finished without one in 28 of 33 Sharks losses, including six of seven this season. His record is less consistent than Graf’s, while the −340 price offers a larger individual payout than −475.
His recent Boston loss illustrates the appeal of narrowing the bet to assists. Misa scored a goal in 14:25, including 2:59 on the power play, and had no assists. An assist under could survive that contribution to San Jose’s offense. A point under couldn’t.
He’s listed at center on the expected second line and is averaging about 13½ minutes, slightly more than in the older San Jose games. His latest outing included 2:49 on the power play. That opportunity matters for a player whose under can lose on a single pass that leads to a goal.
It didn’t take much power-play time for him to record an assist in the October loss to Edmonton: he played 12:44 overall and just 13 seconds with the man advantage. He also had an assist in the earlier win over Ottawa. Those are concrete reasons to prefer Graf’s stronger record if the heavier price is acceptable, or Misa’s larger payout if you’re willing to take the less consistent passing restriction.
Match the supporting prop to your Ottawa view
Nurse’s shots allow San Jose to create attempts without requiring a goal. The Graf and Misa unders allow goals from those players, provided neither records an assist. They’re different ways to support an Ottawa-win premise, with the choice between the two assist unders largely a question of price and passing opportunity.
These options share one game, and the two assist unders depend on related parts of San Jose’s offense. Their separate records aren’t independent probabilities to multiply into a parlay forecast. Compare the current lines on the Senators–Sharks matchup page, or explore more angles in our NHL coverage.
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