Ottawa has two wins, Detroit has two losses, and the current moneyline prices barely separate them: DraftKings has both teams at -110 for Tuesday’s matchup. That makes this an interesting early-season test of how much weight to give those opening results. The Senators bring a productive Tim Stutzle and slightly stronger attacking grades, but a quick turnaround and a goaltending concern complicate the picture.
Ottawa’s momentum comes with a quick turnaround
Stutzle scored twice and added an assist in Monday’s 4-1 win at Boston, while Drake Batherson also scored. Ottawa now plays on consecutive nights, while Detroit has been off since Sunday. That’s a meaningful scheduling difference even with the Senators coming off a convincing result.
There’s also a fresh concern in net: Linus Ullmark is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. He stopped all 10 shots he faced through two periods against Boston before Samuel Ersson handled the third and made eight saves. Ullmark’s current status adds uncertainty to Ottawa’s goaltending picture, and Ersson’s relief appearance gives that concern immediate context.
Detroit’s last loss wasn’t just about generating chances
Sunday’s 3-2 loss to Winnipeg offers a more useful starting point than Detroit’s winless record alone. The Red Wings put 35 shots on goal, but all three Winnipeg goals came on the power play. Viktor Arvidsson and Emmitt Finnie scored as Detroit worked back from a three-goal deficit.
That gives Detroit a concrete route to a better result: keep getting shots on net while avoiding another costly night on the penalty kill. Ottawa’s most recent win included a Stutzle power-play goal, so special teams deserve attention here. Our projections call for roughly three power-play opportunities for each team—enough for those sequences to matter without suggesting a parade to the penalty box.
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Similar shot volume keeps the moneyline interesting
Our grades give Ottawa a modest attacking advantage, B to Detroit’s B-, while both teams receive a B- defensive grade. Ottawa also holds the higher overall grade, B to B-. The shot projections are much closer: about 29 for Ottawa and 28 for Detroit. Taken together, that’s a stronger case for a competitive game than for treating the opposite records as a large gap in team quality.
Ottawa’s strongest case is its productive attack and modest edge in our grades. Detroit’s counterweight is the extra rest and evidence that it can generate shots even in defeat. With the moneyline priced evenly and little separating the projected shot volume, special-teams execution looks like the clearest swing factor. Ottawa’s goaltending availability adds another important uncertainty on the second night of a back-to-back.
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