Ottawa has the stronger team grades and a small projected edge in shots, but how much separation can that create in Boston? The Senators enter Monday’s matchup as narrow moneyline favorites, and they’ll face the Bruins without defenseman Jake Sanderson. It’s a test of whether Ottawa can turn a little more attacking volume into a meaningful advantage against Jeremy Swayman.
A small edge, not a wide gap
DraftKings prices this as a closely matched moneyline contest, with Ottawa at -118 and Boston at -102, despite the difference in our team evaluations. Our overall grade is B for the Senators and C+ for the Bruins. Ottawa also grades higher in both attack and defense: B and B+, respectively, compared with Boston’s C+ and B-.
Our shot projections give that contrast a more modest on-ice shape: about 29 shots for Ottawa and 27 for Boston. A few extra shots would give the Senators more chances to test Swayman, but it’s hardly an overwhelming volume advantage. Boston’s path is to keep that gap manageable and get enough production from a top forward line featuring Elias Lindholm, JJ Peterka and David Pastrnak.
Sanderson’s absence matters to the matchup
Jake Sanderson is out with a lower-body injury, giving Ottawa a meaningful personnel concern even with its stronger defensive grade. Thomas Chabot and Jordan Spence are part of the Senators’ defensive group, with Linus Ullmark in goal; neither needs to be cast as Sanderson’s replacement to be central to this matchup.
At the other end, Ottawa’s top forward line brings together Tim Stutzle, Warren Foegele and Drake Batherson. Watch whether that group can sustain pressure against Swayman while Boston’s top line tests the Senators at the other end. Ottawa’s projected shot advantage is small enough that finishing and goaltending could readily outweigh it.
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The early results offer different starting points
Ottawa opened with a 3-2 win at Toronto. Boston is 2-1 but comes off a 4-1 loss at Minnesota, after wins over the Rangers and Winnipeg. Those are useful early reference points, rather than enough games to establish a reliable pattern: the Senators have one result behind them, while the Bruins have already experienced both a shutout win and a three-goal defeat.
The strongest case for Ottawa is the combination of better grades and a modest shot-volume edge. Boston’s counterweight is that the expected volume gap is narrow, and Sanderson’s absence adds a concrete personnel concern for the Senators. What matters most is how much Ottawa gets from its extra opportunities—and whether Ullmark can keep Boston’s top line from making fewer chances count for more.
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