New Jersey’s four-goal rebound gives the home favorite something to build on, but Ottawa brings the better early-season record and strong recent work from Linus Ullmark. The Devils have a modest projected shooting advantage; the more interesting question is whether their revived power play can turn those opportunities into another productive night against the Senators—and what that means for a 5.5-goal total.
New Jersey has something to build on
The Devils beat Vancouver 4-1 on Saturday to move to 2-2. Nico Hischier scored twice and added an assist, Jesper Bratt contributed a goal and an assist, and Jack Hughes had two assists. That was a welcome response after New Jersey scored just six goals across its first three games.
DraftKings’ current moneyline makes New Jersey a -135 favorite. Our shot projections give the Devils a modest volume advantage: roughly 30 shots to Ottawa’s 28. That offers a plausible path for the home favorite, though the gap is small enough that New Jersey still needs productive nights from the players who drove Saturday’s win.
Our team evaluations provide a counterweight: we grade Ottawa’s attack a B and New Jersey’s a C. The Devils’ rebound matters, but our broader assessment favors Ottawa’s attack despite New Jersey’s favorite status.
Ottawa’s start is backed by strong work in net
Ottawa improved to 4-1 by edging Nashville 3-2 in a shootout on Saturday. Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson scored in regulation, with Batherson tying the game with 2:23 remaining, before Shane Pinto delivered the shootout winner. The Senators’ back-to-back wins have come with only three goals allowed between them.
The expected matchup in net puts Ullmark opposite Jake Allen. Ullmark has a .942 save percentage across four recent appearances this season; Allen has a .896 mark across three. Allen’s latest outing was much better than that small-sample average—he stopped 20 of 21 shots against Vancouver—but Ullmark has supplied the stronger recent body of work. That’s an important challenge to New Jersey’s modest projected shot advantage.
Ottawa defenseman Jake Sanderson is day-to-day with a lower-body injury. His availability is another detail to monitor, without assuming either an absence or a return.
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The 5.5 total hinges on more than Saturday’s scores
Four of Ottawa’s five games this season have finished Under their sportsbook totals, returning a profit of 2.82 units from flat one-unit Under bets. Ullmark’s recent performance fits that lower-scoring picture at the posted 5.5, although those past bets were settled at their own lines and prices.
New Jersey’s power play offers the clearest counterweight. The Devils went 3-for-4 against Vancouver after converting only once in 14 opportunities over their first three games. Ottawa, meanwhile, went 1-for-6 against Nashville. Another efficient night from New Jersey would lift the scoring outlook considerably, while a return to its earlier struggles would put more pressure on its modest shooting edge.
The opportunity balance also matters: our projections give Ottawa a slight advantage in power-play chances, 3.4 to New Jersey’s 2.6. The Devils’ recent efficiency is encouraging, but they may have fewer chances to repeat it. Ottawa’s ability to make more of its own opportunities is another route to higher scoring, so its low-scoring start isn’t the whole story at 5.5.
What matters most
New Jersey’s case rests on carrying Saturday’s attacking production forward, not simply generating a few more shots. Ottawa counters with better early results, Ullmark’s strong recent saves and a slight projected advantage in power-play opportunities. For bettors weighing the favorite’s price and the total, the key distinction is whether the Devils’ special-teams rebound can hold up against that combination. Saturday showed their scoring upside; their earlier struggles leave the sustainability of that improvement as the main uncertainty.
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