South Carolina needed a late 41-yard run from LaNorris Sellers to put Texas A&M away. Arkansas kept Auburn close until the final minute despite giving up 120 rushing yards to quarterback Byrum Brown. If the Razorbacks can keep Sellers inside the pocket on passing downs, they can make South Carolina work for the points that separate a close game from a comfortable road win.
South Carolina’s defense gave Sellers time to put the game away
Sellers threw for 251 yards and a touchdown in South Carolina’s 17–9 win over Texas A&M. The Aggies had the ball for nearly 10 minutes longer and gained more yards, but the Gamecocks took a 10–9 lead on Malik Orsan’s 43-yard field goal and stopped the Aggies on downs late. Sellers broke his touchdown run on the next play. Arkansas needs to keep its rush lanes intact when Sellers drops back. One missed assignment can give back the field position it spent a drive earning.
Arkansas showed it can answer after halftime
Sutton Smith broke a 65-yard run, and KJ Jackson threw for 123 of his 188 yards after halftime in Arkansas’s 26–23 loss at Auburn. Jackson’s fourth-quarter touchdown pass tied the game at 23 before Auburn hit the winning field goal with 33 seconds left. The Razorbacks have a way to keep Sellers waiting if Smith gets enough on early downs to let Jackson throw on his terms. That matters against a South Carolina defense that just held Texas A&M to nine points despite giving up 137 rushing yards to Rueben Owens II.
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How South Carolina can build a two-score lead
DraftKings makes South Carolina a 7.5-point favorite. We project about 262 passing yards for South Carolina and 220 for Arkansas, with nearly identical first-down projections. The Gamecocks have a path to winning if Sellers turns that extra yardage into scoring chances. Covering takes more than a touchdown’s worth of separation. If Arkansas can contain Sellers on third down and turn its own first downs into points, it can stay within one score even if South Carolina gains more yards.
What gets the game to 52
DraftKings set the total at 51.5. In our game logs, seven of Arkansas’s nine games this season went under their own totals. The Auburn game finished at 49 despite Auburn scoring 23 after halftime. South Carolina’s last two wins ranged from 67 combined points against Oklahoma to 26 against Texas A&M. If Arkansas can keep South Carolina’s gains short and both teams have to sustain long drives, field goals and empty possessions can keep the score below the number. A quick score from Sellers or Smith changes how many points either team needs from those longer drives.
Watch the edge of the pocket when Sellers drops back on third down. If Arkansas forces him to stay inside it and Jackson keeps converting at the other end, the Razorbacks can make South Carolina earn each scoring chance.
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