LaNorris Sellers helped South Carolina turn a late deficit into a win over Tennessee. Now the Gamecocks take that momentum to Oklahoma, where our strongest evaluation belongs to the Sooners’ defense. Oklahoma is a 4.5-point favorite at DraftKings, but the teams’ recent wins suggest a closer question than their identical 4-3 records answer: can South Carolina keep finding ways to score when the room to run gets tighter?
Sellers gives South Carolina a way back
Sellers threw for 210 yards and a touchdown and ran for 96 yards and two more scores in Saturday’s 27-24 win over Tennessee. His tying touchdown came with 1:17 left. Dylan Stewart then forced a fumble, Tomiwa Durojaiye recovered it at the Tennessee 34, and Malik Orsan made the winning 48-yard field goal as time expired in the 27-24 victory.
South Carolina had already beaten Florida 38-19 in its previous game. Those two wins followed three straight losses, so there’s a real change in results to consider. Against Tennessee, though, the Gamecocks also surrendered a 14-0 lead before recovering. Their late response was impressive; avoiding another stretch spent chasing the game would make the trip to Norman easier.
Oklahoma’s defense sets the challenge
Our grades put Oklahoma’s defense at A+ and South Carolina’s at B+, while both offenses receive B+ marks. That makes the Sooners’ ability to limit Sellers and the rest of the Gamecocks’ attack the clearest strength in the comparison.
Our projections put South Carolina at about 91 rushing yards as a team, compared with 113 for Oklahoma. The passing outlook runs the other way, roughly 239 yards for the Gamecocks and 222 for the Sooners. Total yardage is nearly level at about 330 and 334. South Carolina has a plausible route through the air, but the rushing outlook suggests it may have less ground production to lean on than Sellers provided by himself last week.
Oklahoma’s 23-15 win at Mississippi State offered its own example of how quickly a defensive play can change a game. The Sooners recovered a fumble near their goal line, then drove 96 yards for a touchdown before halftime. John Mateer added another touchdown pass just after the break. Oklahoma also ran for 184 yards and closed out the 23-15 win on the ground.
That was a productive answer to a 21-13 loss to Kentucky the week before. Still, Oklahoma allowed Mississippi State to turn a 23-7 deficit into a one-possession game late. South Carolina’s latest rally gives the Sooners a timely reason to finish more cleanly.
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The 44.5 total meets opposing histories
Five of Oklahoma’s seven games this season have gone Under, while five of South Carolina’s seven have gone Over. The 44.5-point total therefore brings together different scoring histories rather than a shared pattern.
Oklahoma’s defensive evaluation and South Carolina’s modest rushing projection give substance to the case for difficult scoring drives. The counterweight is what both teams just showed: Sellers can contribute touchdowns on the ground and through the air, while Mateer produced touchdown passes on consecutive possessions around halftime. The takeaways mattered in different ways: South Carolina gained a short field for its winning kick, while Oklahoma still had to drive 96 yards after its recovery. Whether these offenses have to cover that much ground or receive a shorter chance matters to this scoring outlook.
Oklahoma’s defense gives the favorite its strongest matchup advantage. South Carolina’s passing outlook and recent resilience keep the matchup competitive. The key for the Gamecocks is finding enough offense before the closing minutes; another late rescue would be a demanding plan against this defense.
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