San Antonio’s 130–103 win over Sacramento included five assists from Stephon Castle, 11 points from De’Aaron Fox and 14 from Keldon Johnson. Fox’s total still finished one short of a 12-point target, despite plenty of team scoring.
Starting with a hypothetical San Antonio win over Minnesota, these Spurs parlay picks compare Castle reaching five assists, Fox reaching 12 points and Johnson reaching six. Their recent games help explain the room you buy by choosing a lower target—and why team scoring alone won’t settle any of these props.
Spurs parlay picks: creation, scoring and a bench floor
The Timberwolves list Anthony Edwards out after knee surgery, with Donte DiVincenzo also out. Tobias Harris and Jayden Quaintance are listed out for the Spurs; Saturday’s lineups remain unconfirmed.
The records below cover completed San Antonio appearances from October 1, 2025 through October 30, 2026, including the postseason. Winning-game and all-game records use the same dates and participation rules. These historical rates aren’t probabilities for tonight. Individual DraftKings prices are dated snapshots and can change.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All current-team games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stephon Castle 5+ assists |
−224 | 85.1% 57 of 67 Spurs wins |
82.5% 80 of 97 appearances |
| De’Aaron Fox 12+ points |
−265 | 85.7% 60 of 70 Spurs wins |
82.8% 82 of 99 appearances |
| Keldon Johnson 6+ points |
−393 | 92.3% 72 of 78 Spurs wins |
85.6% 95 of 111 appearances |
Stephon Castle: 5+ assists at −224
Castle has recorded one, five, eight, five and eight assists in his five starts this season. The last three games were San Antonio wins, and all three cleared five. His latest eight came in 38 minutes against Utah.
The five-assist finish against Sacramento shows the difference from six at −124. In 27 minutes, he reached five exactly; six would have missed. Over the longer winning-game record, five covered 11 more Spurs wins than six did.
Four assists was −455 and covered six more wins than five, with a smaller payout. One of those games was San Antonio’s 133–95 playoff win over Minnesota. Castle scored 21 points but finished with four assists in 24 minutes. Four would have cleared, while five would have missed even in that comfortable win.
His current average of about 31 minutes is almost identical to the older San Antonio sample. That gives the role some continuity, but the opening Oklahoma City loss shows that minutes and scoring can go elsewhere: Castle scored 24 in 28 minutes with only one assist.
Five at −224 sits between the lower payout at four and the extra creation needed for six. It fits a view where Castle helps run the offense without needing another eight-assist game. Teammates still have to finish enough of his passes for those assists to count.
De’Aaron Fox: 12+ points at −265
Fox’s current scoring totals are 14, 19, 19, 11 and 14. Four of five cleared 12, but only two of San Antonio’s three wins did. The Sacramento win was the miss: 11 points in 26 minutes on 3-for-6 shooting, with three made free throws.
Ten points was −488 and covered four more Spurs wins in the full history than 12. That recent 11-point game would have cleared ten. Paying for the lower target would have helped there, with a smaller payout on a winning bet.
Fifteen points was −123 and covered 48 of the 70 wins, compared with 60 for 12. His latest Utah game landed between the targets: 14 points in 39 minutes, shooting 5-for-12 and making one of five threes. Twelve would have cleared; 15 would have missed.
That makes 12 a useful line to compare with how much scoring you expect from Fox. It leaves room for a supporting total in the low teens, while still accepting the possibility of an 11-point finish like the Sacramento game.
His current average of about 31 minutes is close to the older sample, but even a long appearance can bring a miss. In a December win over Oklahoma City he scored six in 34 minutes. At −265, the payout is limited, and a Spurs win alone doesn’t establish how much of their scoring will come from Fox.
Keldon Johnson: 6+ points at −393
Johnson has scored ten, eight, seven, 14 and nine in his five appearances this season. All five came off the bench, with 19 to 26 minutes played. Six has cleared in all five games and all three San Antonio wins.
Eight points was −187, offering a larger payout than six at −393. It covered eight fewer Spurs wins in the longer record. Johnson’s seven points in the Dallas win show the tradeoff: he played 26 minutes and shot 3-for-5, but eight would still have missed. Six left room for that modest scoring total.
The latest Utah game brought nine points in 23 minutes on 4-for-7 shooting. He missed both threes, so his scoring there didn’t depend on making a perimeter shot. It was enough for both six and eight, while the earlier seven-point game cleared only six.
His current average of 22 minutes is almost the same as in his older Spurs appearances. Tobias Harris is listed out for Saturday, but that doesn’t guarantee Johnson a larger role. The six-point line is best considered against the bench workload he has actually been getting.
There are clear misses in that role. Johnson went scoreless in ten minutes in San Antonio’s 139–109 playoff win over Minnesota, missing both shots. A January win over Utah also brought just two points in 24 minutes. The first shows the risk of a short night; the second shows that more minutes don’t remove it.
Six at −393 asks for a small bench scoring contribution and pays accordingly. Compare it with eight if you prefer a larger payout and can accept the additional winning games where Johnson fell short.
Choose the contribution you want from a Spurs win
Castle’s passing offers a different route from the scoring lines. If Fox’s 11-point win gives you pause, compare the smaller payout at ten with 12. Johnson’s six left room for his seven-point bench night, while eight would have missed. Choose the room you want to pay for; the separate records don’t establish a combined chance of clearing.
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