Aaron Rodgers hasn’t needed a huge passing day for Pittsburgh to win, but he has usually reached 200 yards along the way. He’s done it in nine of his ten Steelers wins over the past year, giving a Pittsburgh-win ticket a clear place to start for Sunday’s game in Paris.
For this Side & Support edition, we follow that winning scenario through the player logs: Rodgers and Darnell Washington on Pittsburgh’s side, plus Juwan Johnson’s receiving yards and Alvin Kamara’s catches in Saints losses.
The records and recent misses give you different routes to weigh. Johnson’s yardage has usually held up in Saints losses, while Kamara’s catch under depends on how New Orleans shares its receiving work.
Four props to pair with a Steelers win
The records below cover the past year, including playoffs, with each player’s current team. The smaller samples and recent role changes get a closer look in the player breakdowns.
| Player & prop | Odds | When PIT wins / NO loses | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers 200+ passing yards |
−222 | 90.0% 9 of 10 Steelers wins |
64.7% 11 of 17 games |
| Darnell Washington 2+ catches |
−306 | 88.9% 8 of 9 Steelers wins |
75.0% 12 of 16 games |
| Juwan Johnson 30+ receiving yards |
−129 | 88.9% 8 of 9 Saints losses |
87.5% 14 of 16 games |
| Alvin Kamara Under 2.5 catches |
−104 | 83.3% 5 of 6 Saints losses |
66.7% 6 of 9 games |
Aaron Rodgers: 200+ passing yards
Rodgers’ 200-yard line is −222 at DraftKings. He has reached it in nine of ten Steelers wins, compared with 11 of 17 appearances overall. That is the clearest larger-sample win comparison among these four options.
He has also cleared it in all four Pittsburgh wins this season, with totals of 221, 292, 235 and 253 yards. You’re asking him to repeat a level he has reached in each of those wins, rather than relying on a big-yardage ceiling.
The miss was a 116-yard winning outing last November. And 299 yards in this season’s loss at Cleveland shows why the relationship only goes so far: the passing yards can arrive without the team result.
Darnell Washington: 2+ catches
Washington has caught at least two passes in eight of nine Steelers wins he played in over the past year, versus 12 of 16 appearances overall. DraftKings lists 2+ catches at −306, the shortest price in this group.
His four winning games this season produced two, three, two and four catches. That keeps the recent evidence in step with the longer record, although two of those games left no extra catch to spare. His only miss in a win was a one-catch game at Baltimore last December.
Pittsburgh’s injuries at receiver leave Michael Pittman Jr. and Roman Wilson on injured reserve, with Ben Skowronek also out. That puts the receiving roles in focus, but Washington still shares targets with Metcalf, Bernard, Freiermuth and the backs.
His catches can contribute to Rodgers’ passing yards on the same plays. Both ideas may fit your Pittsburgh view, but their separate records don’t tell you how often the pair lands together.
Juwan Johnson: 30+ receiving yards
A Saints loss has often left Johnson with enough receiving work to reach 30 yards. He has hit that mark in eight of nine losses, compared with 14 of 16 appearances overall. At −129, his line offers a bigger payout than either Pittsburgh passing option above.
The all-game record is almost as strong as the loss-only record. The appeal is that this modest yardage requirement has usually held up even when New Orleans loses, rather than a dramatic jump tied to the result.
His latest games are the reason to pause. Johnson managed 16 yards in the loss to Minnesota, then went without a catch on two targets in last week’s win over the Giants. Earlier Saints losses this season produced 54, 53 and 59 yards.
That gives you a useful opponent-player route, with a clear recent warning attached. The zero-catch outing belongs in the decision just as much as those earlier yardage totals.
Alvin Kamara: under 2.5 catches
Kamara has finished with two catches or fewer in five of the six Saints losses he played in over the past year. The comparable all-game record is six of nine, and DraftKings prices the under at −104.
This is the smallest conditional sample in the article. His three Saints losses this season produced one, five and two catches. The five-catch game against Atlanta is a useful counterexample: New Orleans losing does not keep Kamara out of the passing game.
He has caught two passes in each of his last two appearances. The final injury report lists limited back practices all week with no game designation, so check final availability and the backfield picture before using the under.
Steelers parlay picks: choose the support that fits
Rodgers’ 200-yard line has the strongest mix of a ten-win sample and four current-season hits. Washington’s catches offer a lower individual requirement at a shorter price, with overlap if you use both.
Johnson supplies the Saints-loss receiving angle, but his last two games deserve weight. Kamara’s under is the lightest individual price here and the thinnest sample; it asks for more judgment about how New Orleans distributes its catches.
Choose the options that match your view rather than treating every row as part of one ticket. Check the final active list, exact offers and sportsbook SGP pricing; these individual prices are snapshots and can change.
See the Steelers vs. Saints matchup or compare the slate on our NFL betting board.
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