Can Arizona turn its yards into points against TCU?

Arizona threw for 417 yards at Texas Tech and still spent the final minutes chasing the game. TCU went scoreless in the first half against Kansas and found a way to win. Put those two games together and you get the question that matters Friday in Tucson: Can Arizona finish enough drives to pull away from a team that’s been hard to put away?

What happens when Arizona has to drive the field?

Noah Fifita hit Isaiah Mizell for a 94-yard touchdown in the 34–26 loss at Texas Tech. The AP recap shows how different the game looked when Arizona had to work for shorter gains. The Wildcats missed a fourth-and-1 pass from the Texas Tech 18. A fumble gave them the ball right back, but a holding penalty helped stall that possession before it got going. Both chances to take the lead in the fourth quarter came up empty.

Arizona was favored by 8.5 points in DraftKings’ Tuesday 10 p.m. ET snapshot. Our team yardage projections give Arizona about 420 yards to TCU’s 390, with a slightly larger gap on the ground than through the air. That’s an edge in moving the ball. To see whether it’s enough for Arizona to build a cushion, watch what happens on the drives that don’t end with a play like Mizell’s.

TCU has found ways to hang around

All four losses this season came by eight points or fewer. In Saturday’s 22–16 win over Kansas, Max Carroll returned an interception for a touchdown, and Jaden Craig capped an 84-yard drive with the go-ahead run with 1:09 left. TCU can stay within reach even when its offense starts slowly, but needing a late drive is a tough way to live after punting on seven of its first eight possessions.

Watch Arizona’s first trips into scoring range

Seven of TCU’s eight games this season went under their posted totals. Arizona gives the 43.5 total a counterweight: The Wildcats scored at least 34 in each of their five straight wins before Texas Tech. If TCU makes Arizona earn its points a few yards at a time, those trips into scoring range will matter more. Another quick strike would put pressure on TCU to get something going earlier than it did against Kansas.

Early Arizona touchdowns would give the Wildcats room to pull away and change what TCU has to do with the ball. A couple of empty trips would keep the Horned Frogs within reach without asking their offense to trade scores from the opening drive.

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