Texas A&M got its running game back on track last Saturday, but Missouri presents a demanding follow-up test. The Aggies piled up 231 rushing yards against Arkansas; the Tigers held Florida’s Jadan Baugh to just 13 yards. Both teams are coming off convincing wins after losses, and the central question is whether A&M can carry that rushing rebound into Columbia—or whether Missouri can make the Aggies find another way to move the ball.
A&M’s rebound meets Missouri’s resistance
The Aggies’ 34-7 win over Arkansas was a substantial change from their previous outing. They had managed only 68 rushing yards in a 35-6 loss at LSU. Against the Razorbacks, KJ Edwards and quarterback Marcel Reed each ran for 66 yards. Edwards scored twice on the ground, while Reed added a rushing touchdown and 170 passing yards.
That gives Missouri more than one runner to account for. But the Tigers just showed how effectively they can contain a productive rushing threat: Baugh gained 12 yards on his first carry, then only one yard across his remaining 11 attempts in Missouri’s 45-17 win. Reed’s involvement makes this a different assignment, but Missouri’s performance offers a concrete reason to question whether A&M’s ground production will travel.
The Tigers have their own offensive test
Missouri didn’t win on defense alone. Austin Simmons threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns against Florida, while Jamal Roberts ran for 211 yards and three scores. Roberts broke off runs of 76 and 80 yards, giving the Tigers the kind of explosive production that can quickly separate two otherwise competitive teams.
Our yardage projections point toward a more restrained afternoon for Missouri: roughly 190 passing yards and 180 rushing yards. For A&M, we project about 220 yards through the air and 150 on the ground. The overall yardage outlook is nearly level, at around 370 yards apiece, but the balance differs. A&M has the higher passing projection; Missouri has the higher rushing projection. That makes the Aggies’ ability to stay productive when their running game slows an important part of this matchup.
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A close matchup, with a meaningful spread
DraftKings’ current spread makes Missouri a 3.5-point favorite. That half-point beyond a field goal matters for bettors: a three-point Tigers win wouldn’t cover. Our overall grades give both teams an A-, and both defenses also receive an A-. Those evaluations put the teams in the same tier, even after Missouri’s emphatic win over Florida.
Missouri’s strongest case is its combination of rushing production and the run-stopping performance it just delivered. A&M’s counterweight is Reed’s ability to contribute in both phases, along with a passing projection that exceeds Missouri’s. The key is whether the Aggies can keep moving the ball without needing another 231-yard rushing day. Missouri’s recent defensive performance makes that a real challenge, but Reed’s passing and running give A&M more than one route to answering it.
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