Texas Tech needed a third-and-1 stop to get the ball back for its go-ahead drive against West Virginia. Oklahoma State forced a three-and-out against Kansas State and scored three plays later. Both offenses can turn a stop into points in a hurry. In Stillwater, watch which defense can win an early down and keep the next snap from turning into a long gain.
Texas Tech can break a drive open on the ground
Thomas Castellanos threw five touchdown passes and ran for 102 yards in Texas Tech’s 53–48 win over West Virginia. J’Koby Williams ran for 160, including a 75-yard touchdown. The Red Raiders still punted on their first four second-half possessions. Once the defense stuffed Cam Cook on third-and-1, Castellanos found Micah Hudson for 26 yards on fourth down and Kenny Johnson for the go-ahead score. If Oklahoma State forces Texas Tech into another stretch of punts, the Cowboys have the offense to make those empty trips count.
Oklahoma State can keep the pass rush guessing
Caleb Hawkins ran for 175 yards and three touchdowns and caught another score in Oklahoma State’s 66–28 win at Kansas State. Drew Mestemaker threw four touchdown passes, and the Cowboys scored touchdowns on their first six red-zone trips. Kansas State still answered Oklahoma State’s opening score with a 73-yard touchdown pass behind busted coverage. The Cowboys can limit Texas Tech’s chances to do the same by getting enough from Hawkins to stay out of long passing downs. The Red Raiders recorded 18 sacks over their previous four games.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our Texas Tech vs. Oklahoma State picks.
See our model's picks for this game, plus the projections and trends behind them. Use PREVIEW20 for 20% off Premium Monthly. New members who qualify get 3 days free.
A field goal win leaves Oklahoma State short of the spread
DraftKings makes Oklahoma State a 3.5-point favorite. We project about 283 passing yards for Oklahoma State and 191 rushing yards for Texas Tech. Mestemaker gives the Cowboys a way to answer through the air, but winning by more than a field goal also takes stops. If Williams and Castellanos can keep getting yards on the ground, Texas Tech can stay close and take away some of the obvious passing downs where Oklahoma State can rush Castellanos without having to respect the run.
The total needs more than one hot offense
DraftKings set the total at 72.5. Seven of nine games for each team went over their own totals this season, but the number here is higher than the combined score in either of Texas Tech’s games against Arizona or Cincinnati. Last week’s scores show what gets this one past 72.5. Oklahoma State kept finishing in the red zone, and Texas Tech and West Virginia combined for 13 plays of at least 30 yards. If pressure starts turning drives into punts, both offenses may need to make nearly every trip inside the 20 count.
Watch the early downs in Stillwater
See whether Hawkins and Williams leave their quarterbacks with short third downs. If you’re comparing this game with the rest of Saturday’s slate, the college football betting board lets you see how much scoring the market expects elsewhere before deciding what to watch.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.