Mississippi State sacked Arch Manning six times last week and still lost to Texas by 28. Missouri turned four Arkansas turnovers into 24 points. In Saturday’s matchup, watch whether the Tigers can turn pressure into points again and whether Texas can get the ball out before the rush arrives.
The first two downs can set up Missouri’s pass rush
Manning threw three touchdown passes in the 31–3 win, but Texas finished with fewer than 300 yards. Its defense supplied a touchdown when Rasheem Biles forced a fumble and Maraad Watson returned it 61 yards, according to the Associated Press recap. If Missouri can stop the run on early downs, it can force longer third downs and give its pass rush a chance to get to Manning. Texas can counter by getting the ball out quickly before that pressure arrives.
DraftKings had Texas favored by 2.5 at 12:22 p.m. ET Wednesday. Texas needs only a field-goal margin to cover. Missouri can also keep Manning on the sideline with Jamal Roberts, who ran for 138 yards on 23 carries in a 34–10 win at Arkansas. Austin Simmons also threw two touchdowns, per the AP recap. If Roberts keeps Missouri out of long passing downs, the Tigers can put together drives without needing their defense to hand them a short field again.
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At 42.5, a defensive score can change the total
DraftKings priced the over at −115 and the under at −105 on 42.5 in the same snapshot. Missouri’s last three games stayed under their own totals, but its 44-point game against Arkansas would clear Saturday’s line. Texas and Mississippi State combined for 34 even with Watson’s return touchdown. One defensive score can help push a low number over, but it still matters how many drives the offenses finish.
Watch whether the early pressure ends drives or creates points. Sacks on third down can send the punt team out and keep points off the board. A strip sack that sets up a short field, or a return straight to the end zone, can change the spread and total on the same play.
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