Toledo ran for 230 yards at Sacramento State and still needed a fourth-down stop to win. UMass got 302 passing yards from William Watson III against Ball State, then won in overtime on his legs. The question Wednesday is whether Watson can keep enough drives going to put pressure on Toledo to finish its own.
Toledo can move the ball without throwing much
CJ Miller ran for 135 yards and Autavius Ison added 101 in Toledo’s 20–17 win at Sacramento State. Ison put the Rockets ahead with a 19-yard touchdown late in the third, but their remaining points came on two field goals. Our rushing projections have Toledo around 195 yards and UMass around 120. That puts the focus on early downs: when Miller and Ison keep third downs short, the Rockets can stay with the run. The next test is whether those drives end in the end zone.
DraftKings had Toledo favored by 14 in the pregame snapshot. The common-opponent results show how differently the teams have handled the same defenses. Toledo beat Eastern Michigan 34–14, while UMass lost 38–14. Against Buffalo, Toledo managed eight points in a 23–8 loss, while UMass scored 18 in a seven-point loss. That’s why the rushing matchup is more useful than a score comparison on its own: Toledo can win up front and still leave UMass within reach if the drives keep ending in kicks.
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Watson can change the scoring pace
Watson found Jabari Lewis for a 64-yard touchdown just before halftime in UMass’s 31–30 overtime win over Ball State. He scored twice on the ground, including the 13-yard run that set up the winning extra point. UMass had scored between 14 and 19 in each of its previous four games. A play like the throw to Lewis can change the game without asking the Minutemen to put together a long drive.
DraftKings posted 51.5. Toledo’s last two games finished at 37 against Sacramento State and 83 against Western Michigan. UMass and Ball State had 48 points before overtime took them to 61. The quickest clue to where this one is headed may be what happens after the first big play: can Watson keep the next drive alive, and can Toledo turn another trip into a touchdown?
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