USC scored 93 points with only two made threes against Wichita State. Cal made nine against Houston and still finished with 68 points. The Golden Bears have a way to test the Trojans from the perimeter in Berkeley. The question is whether Cal can get enough shots up without giving USC easier points at the other end.
Rice and Arenas gave USC answers inside the arc
Wichita State hit seven of its first 12 threes and led by 11 late in the first half, but USC came back to win 93–86. Rodney Rice scored 32 points and handed out nine assists. Alijah Arenas added 30, including a jumper off a Wichita State turnover during the stretch when USC opened a six-point lead. When the Shockers cut it to three in the final minute, Rice hit two free throws. Cal has to account for both guards without handing them points at the line or letting them attack before the defense is set.
Cal needs more possessions that end with a shot
Mady Cooper made five threes and Jordan Ross added 15 points and five assists in Cal’s 86–68 loss to Houston. Their production helped Cal trim a 23-point deficit to 13, but Houston scored 22 points off 16 turnovers and won the paint scoring 50–24. The Bears can use Cooper’s shooting to pull USC’s defenders away from the lane. If Ross can use that space to get the ball inside or find a second shooter, Cal has more ways to score when Cooper’s shot isn’t there.
Sharpest Bets Premium
Get our USC vs. California picks.
Unlock our model's best bets for this matchup, plus projections, trends, and matchup analysis. Start with a free 7-day trial, then save 20% every month with code PREVIEW20.
Why the margin matters
The DraftKings game lines make USC an 8.5-point favorite. The Trojans showed they can erase a deficit and score late even when their threes aren’t falling. They still beat Wichita State by only seven. The Sharpest Bets team stat projections have Cal making 9.3 threes and USC making 6.3. That’s one way for Cal to keep the margin tight. USC has a clearer route to separation if it can turn Cal’s mistakes into points before the Bears have a chance to use that shooting.
What gets the total to 162
At 161.5, the total asks how much offense Cal can add if USC gets to the line and scores inside the arc again. USC’s first two results this season show why the other end matters. The Trojans scored 95 against Milwaukee and the teams combined for 158. They scored two fewer against Wichita State, but the game reached 179 because the Shockers contributed 86. Cal’s clean trips matter even if USC is scoring comfortably. If Ross keeps finding shooters after USC takes away the first look, Cal can contribute to a high total even when the Trojans are getting their points two at a time.
Watch what happens when USC closes hard on Cooper. If Cal can turn those closeouts into a drive or a clean pass to the next shooter, the Bears can keep scoring even after USC takes away their first look.
We break down every matchup
See the rest of the slate on the men’s college basketball board.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.
More matchups to explore
Unlock our Premium picks. Free.
Get our sharpest picks, team grades, and projected score in your inbox.