Penn State is a 1.5-point home favorite against No. 19 USC, even after a loss that exposed serious problems stopping the run. The Trojans arrive at 5-1, but their latest victory required a second-half comeback and a defensive touchdown. That makes this a more interesting matchup than the records suggest: can Penn State recover enough defensively to make its own ground game matter, or will USC’s passing game put it under pressure again?
What last week exposed
Penn State’s 34-13 loss at Northwestern was especially troubling because of how it unfolded. The Wildcats rushed for 413 yards, with Caleb Komolafe and Joseph Himon II both topping 160. Penn State managed 291 total yards, and Rocco Becht threw two interceptions. It was the Nittany Lions’ second consecutive defeat, following a loss to Wisconsin in which they surrendered a 17-point lead.
USC’s 25-21 win over Washington had a different warning sign: missed opportunities. The Trojans committed nine penalties for 94 yards, including one that erased a long touchdown pass. Jahkeem Stewart’s 48-yard fumble return supplied the go-ahead score, while USC’s defense held Washington scoreless for the final 28:30. The comeback showed resilience, but cleaner execution would give USC a less precarious route this week.
The passing game meets a ground-game counterweight
Our passing-yards projections give USC the more productive passing game: roughly 275 yards through the air, compared with about 200 for Penn State. Jayden Maiava threw for 245 yards against Washington, and that passing production offers USC a clear route to challenging the home favorite.
Penn State has a counterweight on the ground. We project roughly 165 rushing yards for the Nittany Lions against about 130 for USC. That points to a different route to offensive production rather than an across-the-board USC advantage. For Penn State, the important combination is getting useful rushing output while avoiding another game in which its opponent’s running attack creates an overwhelming deficit.
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A short spread puts execution in focus
The latest DraftKings spread leaves little separation between these teams. Recent results also show why a winning record alone doesn’t settle the betting question. Across their last 10 games—a stretch spanning the 2025 and 2026 seasons—both teams are 7-3 outright. USC is just 1-9 against the spread in that span, compared with Penn State’s 6-4. Those games came with different opponents and expectations, but USC’s record has looked much better than its results against the number.
USC’s strongest case is its passing production, supported by a defense that delivered when last week’s game tightened. Penn State’s projected rushing edge gives it a credible answer, but its own run defense needs to rebound for that advantage to carry much weight. That response is the key matchup factor; with so little separation in the spread, USC’s penalties and Penn State’s turnovers are also costly habits neither team can afford to repeat.
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