Jacob Fowler made 42 saves against Winnipeg, and Montreal still lost a game it led 4–0. Utah arrives having won on a loose puck in the crease after an opponent’s big stop. That puts the work around the net at the center of Thursday’s matchup. The Canadiens need saves to end threats, while the Mammoth just showed how much can come from staying with a play after the first shot.
Utah found the goal after the save
Nick Schmaltz scored the winner in Utah’s 3–2 victory at Toronto when he found a loose puck on the power play after Sergei Bobrovsky denied Clayton Keller. Keller finished with three assists, and Mikhail Sergachev had two. Utah also scored through screens and traffic. Those finishes gave the Mammoth a way to get past a goalie who made 33 saves.
Our shot projections have Utah taking about 28 to Montreal’s 26. At Thursday morning’s snapshot, DraftKings had Utah at -122 and Montreal at +102. The modest shot difference puts the focus on what those chances look like. Montreal needs to keep Utah from getting another touch near a goalie who has already moved to make the first stop.
Montreal has offense, with Suzuki’s status unresolved
Cole Caufield scored twice against Winnipeg, putting Montreal up four early in the third. The Jets then scored four times in 2:08 late in regulation and won 5–4 in overtime. Juraj Slafkovsky had two assists for the Canadiens. Montreal produced enough offense to take control, then saw an extraordinary short stretch erase it.
Nick Suzuki is questionable for Thursday with a hand injury, according to Wednesday’s update citing Stu Cowan of the Montreal Gazette. He missed the Winnipeg game. His possible return is part of Montreal’s attacking picture, but the Canadiens showed they could score without him. Supporting the goalie while protecting a lead remains a separate challenge.
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Fowler is a counterweight at 6.5
Montreal’s last three games went over their respective totals. Thursday’s 6.5 meets a mixed goalie picture. Jacob Fowler and Karel Vejmelka are listed as possible starters, with neither confirmed. Fowler stopped 93.8% of shots across his last five appearances despite allowing five against Winnipeg. Vejmelka stopped 81.5% across the four of his last five appearances with complete statistics.
If both start, Montreal has a recent source of saves and a possible opening for Caufield’s offense at the other end. Utah’s screens and follow-up attempts offer a way to test Fowler even if he keeps making the initial stop. Cleaner defensive work around him would make that method harder to repeat and give Montreal a better chance to keep the scoring down.
Watch what happens after a difficult Montreal save. A clearance lets the Canadiens turn to their own offense. Another Utah touch near the crease keeps the threat alive, even in a game with little difference in shot volume.
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