Vegas survived a late two-man disadvantage in Pittsburgh, then won on a power play of its own with 32 seconds left. Detroit used a power-play goal to pull within one in Tampa Bay but never found the equalizer. With Thursday’s opponents projected for almost the same number of shots, their latest games offer a useful question: which team can make its chances with an extra skater count?
Vegas found two ways through a close finish
Tomas Hertl scored both of his goals on the power play in the Golden Knights’ 3–2 win over Pittsburgh. Mark Stone set up the late winner after Trevor Connelly’s breakaway had tied the game earlier in the third. Mitch Marner’s assist on Hertl’s first goal extended his point streak to 11 games, the AP reported. Vegas needed that late penalty kill before it could take advantage at the other end.
Our team stat projections put each team near 28–29 shots and about three power-play opportunities. The shot counts alone don’t tell us how dangerous those chances will be, but they give neither side a clear volume advantage. That puts extra attention on the quality of the looks each power play creates.
In the saved DraftKings moneyline snapshot, Vegas is -148 and Detroit +124. The Golden Knights’ latest finish shows what their playmakers can do with an opening. It also shows how thin the margin can be: they needed a tying goal, a difficult kill and a late winner to get past Pittsburgh. That result gives us a reason to watch their special teams, rather than enough on its own to call -148 a bargain.
Detroit needs its response before the deficit grows
Brayden Point scored twice in the first period against Detroit. John Gibson was replaced to start the second after stopping 11 of 13 shots, and the Red Wings fell behind 3–0 before Lucas Raymond and J.T. Compher scored. Compher’s power-play goal brought them within one. Detroit pressed with its goalie pulled for the final three minutes, then allowed an empty-netter with one second left in a 4–2 loss, according to the AP.
That late push offers Detroit something to build on, provided it doesn’t need to erase another three-goal hole. A power-play chance while the score is level would give the Red Wings a way to make Vegas chase. At the other end, keeping Stone and Marner from finding Hertl near the net is an obvious priority after the finish in Pittsburgh.
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The listed goalies add uncertainty at 5.5
Carter Hart and John Gibson are listed as possible starters for Vegas and Detroit, respectively; neither is confirmed. Hart stopped 88% of shots across his last five appearances, while Gibson stopped 83.1% across his last five. Gibson’s sample includes two shortened starts. Those recent results give us less reassurance in goal if either power play starts creating good looks.
There is a counterweight to that scoring scenario in Vegas’s latest game. Two power-play goals still produced only five combined goals because the teams had just one between them through 40 minutes. Against the listed 5.5 total, an early special-teams goal could matter considerably, but power-play success doesn’t automatically mean a high-scoring game.
Watch Detroit’s first penalty kill and its first chance with an extra skater. Staying close through both would let the Red Wings ask Vegas to solve a tight game again. An early special-teams deficit could leave Detroit repeating its Tampa Bay chase—and put more pressure on its unconfirmed goalie situation.
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