Kirk Cousins is back under center for Minnesota as the Vikings try to stop a two-game skid. They beat Green Bay 39–22 in Week 1, but they did it after turning to Carson Wentz in relief. Cousins gets a different test at Lambeau.
If you see another Minnesota win, start with what would keep the Vikings out of obvious passing situations. Aaron Jones Sr.’s carry count is one way to look at that. On the other side, the first meeting showed how Jordan Love can throw often while Tucker Kraft stays under five catches.
| Player & prop | Odds | With this result | All games |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Jones Sr. Over 7.5 rushing attempts |
−136 | 100.0% 12 of 12 MIN wins |
75.0% 15 of 20 games |
| Jordan Love Over 36.5 pass attempts |
−118 | 100.0% 3 of 3 GB losses |
55.6% 5 of 9 games |
| Tucker Kraft Under 4.5 receptions |
−155 | 100.0% 5 of 5 GB losses |
52.9% 9 of 17 games |
Aaron Jones Sr. · Over 7.5 rushing attempts
Jones can clear eight carries while sharing the work. In the opener against Green Bay, he had 12 carries and Jordan Mason had 15. Jones reached eight in all six Minnesota wins this season and landed right on the number against Indianapolis, Mason’s first game back from injury. A close game gives Minnesota room to keep both backs involved.
The last two games show the risk. Jones had five carries apiece against Detroit and Buffalo, both losses. With Cousins making his first Minnesota start since 2023, the useful question is how long the Vikings can stay in situations where they can give Jones the ball.
Jordan Love · Over 36.5 pass attempts
Love threw 42 times in the first meeting, when Green Bay lost its fourth-quarter lead and had to chase the game. He also attempted 45 passes in the loss at Detroit and 53 in the loss to Atlanta. That gives the over a clear path if Minnesota gets ahead. The Packers will also be without Josh Jacobs, which is one more reason to watch how often they call on Love.
The Packers can move the ball without getting close to 37 throws. Love attempted 29 passes in the win at New England, where Green Bay hit enough big plays to build a lead. If Minnesota’s defense lets Green Bay score quickly again, the attempts over loses some of its appeal.
Tucker Kraft · Under 4.5 receptions
Kraft put up 65 yards on just three catches in the first meeting. Love threw often that day, but Christian Watson and Matthew Golden each caught six. The Kraft under fits if Green Bay’s wideouts again do most of the catching. It can survive a couple of gains down the seam because the line counts receptions.
Kraft caught exactly four in two of Green Bay’s three losses this season. The longer sample also includes a 2025 game he left with a knee injury. When Love uses Kraft as a regular outlet, that margin can go quickly. Kraft caught six passes against Carolina this season, and fellow tight end Josh Whyle is out this week.
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How do you see Minnesota winning?
Jones’ carry line fits a game where Minnesota can keep running its offense on schedule. Love’s over makes more sense if you see a Vikings lead forcing Green Bay to throw into the fourth quarter. For Kraft’s under, the extra question is where those passes go.
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