Louisville’s running game finally produced the explosive plays it had been missing, while Wake Forest threw its way back into a difficult game against Miami. That sets up a more interesting test than the teams’ last results alone suggest: can the Cardinals turn their edge on the ground into lasting separation if the Demon Deacons keep moving the ball through the air?
Louisville has a way to build its lead
Keyjuan Brown ran for 163 yards and two touchdowns against SMU, helping Louisville pile up 265 rushing yards in a 41-31 win, the AP reported. Our rushing-yard projections put the Cardinals at about 180 yards here, compared with about 115 for Wake. If Louisville can keep finding room on the ground, it can sustain drives as well as create the big plays that changed the SMU game.
But covering a 13.5-point spread takes more than a productive rushing day. SMU gained 479 yards against Louisville and moved ahead repeatedly before three turnovers helped swing the result. Our overall team grades favor the Cardinals, B+ to C+, yet that previous game showed how an opponent can stay involved even when Louisville gets its ground game going.
Wake has a route back into possessions
Gio Lopez threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns in Wake’s 33-20 loss to Miami, according to the AP. That passing performance gives the Demon Deacons a credible answer if Louisville controls the rushing matchup. The harder part is finishing: Wake reached Miami territory on late drives but came away without the points it needed, and 13 penalties for 137 yards compounded the problem.
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Big gains still have to become points
Louisville and SMU combined for 72 points last time out; Wake and Miami finished with 53. Against a listed total of 57.5, those games offer different lessons. Louisville’s explosive runs helped push its game higher, but timely takeaways also kept SMU’s 479 yards from producing more points. Wake’s passing yards, meanwhile, didn’t translate into a completed comeback.
That makes Wake’s drive-to-drive execution important to both the scoring outlook and the spread. Sustained passing success could keep the Demon Deacons within reach and add possessions that finish with points. Louisville has a strong answer if its rushing gains remain explosive, though its game against SMU leaves room to question how consistently it can keep an opponent from answering.
What could decide it
Louisville has the clearer path to controlling this matchup on the ground. Wake’s passing performance against Miami is the strongest reason not to assume that control will produce a comfortable margin. The deciding factor may be what happens after Wake moves the ball: finishing drives would make Louisville work for separation, while more missed opportunities would give the Cardinals’ rushing edge greater weight.
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