J’Koby Williams needed one carry to turn a tight game against Arizona into a two-score lead. His 64-yard touchdown capped a 175-yard rushing day and showed how fast Texas Tech can pull away. West Virginia has a quarterback who can break a run of his own. On Saturday in Lubbock, the Mountaineers may need just as much from the carries that go for four or five yards.
Texas Tech can get more from fewer carries
Tommy Castellanos ran for 117 yards and a touchdown in Texas Tech’s 34–26 win over Arizona. He also threw two touchdown passes, including a 27-yarder on fourth-and-2 that put the Red Raiders ahead for good. Williams stretched that lead on the ground.
Our rushing projections put Texas Tech at about 204 yards on 41 carries and West Virginia at about 174 on 46. That works out to roughly five yards a carry for Tech and just under four for the Mountaineers. In the Nov. 4 evening snapshot, DraftKings had Texas Tech favored by 16.5 with a total of 65.5. A few big runs can help the Red Raiders build that kind of cushion, especially if West Virginia keeps handing the ball back after short drives.
Watch West Virginia on early downs
Mike Hawkins Jr. ran for two scores, including a 36-yarder, and threw for another in West Virginia’s 24–20 win at TCU. The Mountaineers still needed Ben Cutter to recover a fumble at their own 14 with 34 seconds left after TCU outgained them 484–272. Hawkins showed how quickly West Virginia can score even when yards are hard to come by. A few productive early-down carries on Saturday would give him more options on third down and keep Texas Tech waiting for the ball.
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What it would take to get past 65.5
Seven of West Virginia’s eight games this season went over their own totals. The TCU game was the exception at 44 combined points despite all those yards. Texas Tech scored on a 64-yard run and Arizona on a 94-yard pass and still finished at 60. A quick strike can change the score in a hurry, but at 65.5, watch what happens on the longer drives too. If West Virginia can keep drives alive and finish them with touchdowns, it can help lift the total while making it harder for Tech to pull away.
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