Minnesota’s special teams have made a strong start to the season. Now comes a tougher scheduling test: taking that momentum into Winnipeg on the second night of a back-to-back. The Jets have been off since Friday, and the latest moneylines make this nearly an even matchup. The Wild’s success with the extra skater gives them a concrete advantage to build on, but a longer break and Stuart Skinner’s recent work give Winnipeg reasons to push back.
Minnesota has made its opportunities count
The Wild beat Vegas 4-2 on Monday, scoring three times in the first period and killing all five penalties they faced. Through six games, Minnesota has converted seven of 17 power plays and killed 21 of 22 penalties. That’s a concrete reason to watch the penalty count Tuesday: Minnesota has been getting production from its power play while giving very little back when short-handed.
Our power-play opportunity projection gives the Wild roughly three chances with the extra skater. That would give their productive unit room to influence the game, although six games is still an early sample for those conversion rates. We also rate Minnesota’s attack B+, ahead of Winnipeg’s C-, which supports taking the Wild’s scoring threat seriously even on a quick turnaround.
Minnesota does have a fresh availability setback: center Nico Sturm is out with an upper-body injury after leaving Monday’s game. The Wild now travel to face a Winnipeg team that hasn’t played since its 5-1 loss to Anaheim on Friday.
Winnipeg has a credible counterweight
The DraftKings moneylines have Winnipeg at -115 and Minnesota at -105. That small separation fits a matchup where Minnesota’s early special-teams success meets a clear difference in turnaround time, rather than an obvious favorite.
If Stuart Skinner gets the start for Winnipeg, his recent goaltending performance offers another reason not to judge the Jets solely by Friday’s loss. Across three appearances this season, he has stopped 92% of the shots he faced. He allowed two goals in each of his two most recent appearances, against Detroit and Colorado. Clay Stevenson was in goal against Anaheim, so that five-goal loss isn’t part of Skinner’s recent record.
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What matters at a total of 6.5
The posted total is 6.5, and the teams’ early-season scoring results lean toward relatively contained scoring. Minnesota has finished under the posted total in five of its six recent games this season; Winnipeg has done so in four of five. Monday’s Wild win was Minnesota’s exception, played against a lower 5.5 line.
Our shot projections are about 29 for Minnesota and 26 for Winnipeg. That’s a modest shooting-volume advantage for the Wild, rather than a forecast of heavy shooting at both ends. Minnesota’s penalty killing and Skinner’s recent saves, if he starts, support the case for restrained scoring. The Wild’s productive power play is the clearest counterweight at 6.5: penalties could give Minnesota a route to more scoring without a large increase in overall shot volume.
The takeaway
Minnesota brings the stronger recent special-teams case, while Winnipeg’s longer break and Skinner’s encouraging recent performance, if he starts, provide meaningful counterweights. The Wild’s projected three power plays make their conversion rate the key test: continued efficiency would strengthen their attack in a near-even matchup and challenge the relatively contained scoring picture. For bettors weighing the moneyline or the 6.5 total, the most useful distinction is between Minnesota getting those opportunities and sustaining its excellent early finishing with the extra skater.
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