Edmonton just scored six goals behind a five-point night from Connor McDavid. Minnesota’s latest win needed only two goals, with Kirill Kaprizov supplying the winner. Those contrasting victories set up the central question: can the Wild keep the Oilers’ attack in check while generating enough of their own? Our projections suggest Minnesota can match Edmonton’s shooting volume, making this more interesting than a simple test of whether the Wild can hang on.
Edmonton has the attacking edge—not a clear volume edge
McDavid scored twice and added three assists as Edmonton beat Utah 6-2 on Saturday. Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman also scored. It was a convincing response after the Oilers lost the first half of that home-and-home series 4-2.
Our grades favor Edmonton’s attack, A- to Minnesota’s B+, which fits the Oilers’ status as the DraftKings moneyline favorite at -135, with Minnesota at +114. But our shot projections put both teams at about 29 shots on goal. That leaves Edmonton with the stronger attacking assessment without an accompanying expectation that it will overwhelm Minnesota in shot volume.
Kaprizov gives the Wild a threat of their own. He scored the decisive power-play goal in Minnesota’s 2-1 win over Columbus on Sunday. Minnesota also held the Blue Jackets to 14 shots, so that result was as much about limiting work for Jesper Wallstedt as it was about his saves.
The goalie matchup complicates the 6.5-goal total
Wallstedt enters the expected goalie matchup with a .914 save percentage across his five most recent appearances this season. He allowed one goal in two of those outings, although St. Louis scored four against him last Thursday. That gives Minnesota a credible recent foundation for keeping this game manageable, rather than relying entirely on matching Edmonton goal for goal.
Devon Levi’s five-appearance sample is less tidy: a .897 save percentage, including seven goals allowed against Vancouver. Yet he also stopped 39 of 40 shots against Los Angeles. The overall number points to vulnerability, while that Kings performance shows why it would be too easy to treat Edmonton’s net as a clear weakness.
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At a total of 6.5, Edmonton’s scoring upside runs into some meaningful resistance. Among the teams’ recent games this season, the Oilers split eight games evenly between overs and unders, while Minnesota went under in six of nine. Those recent totals results reflect each game’s posted line. Combined with our roughly even shooting projections and Wallstedt’s recent results, they make an automatic high-scoring expectation difficult to justify.
There’s a longer-view counterweight, too: 54 of Edmonton’s 90 games over the past year went over their posted totals. That broader history spans seasons, but it adds context to the Oilers’ scoring upside beyond Saturday’s six-goal performance. Edmonton’s stronger attack—and Minnesota’s opportunity to test a goalie whose recent results have varied sharply—keeps the 6.5-goal discussion from being one-sided.
What matters most
Edmonton’s strongest case is its attacking quality, with McDavid coming off a dominant game. Minnesota’s answer is more substantial than hoping he has a quiet night: the Wild have their own scoring threat in Kaprizov, comparable projected shot volume and the stronger save percentage across the goalies’ last five appearances. The useful distinction for bettors is between respecting Edmonton’s attack and assuming a comfortable win or a shootout. Minnesota just showed how much limiting shots can help Wallstedt; doing that against Edmonton while maintaining its own shooting volume is the Wild’s central matchup test.
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