Atlanta’s quarterback situation is the unavoidable starting point for Sunday’s opener in Pittsburgh. Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. have both been ruled out, leaving Cooper Rush to start against a Steelers team favored by nearly a touchdown.
Pittsburgh has the cleaner setup on paper, but the matchup isn’t quite as one-sided as the spread might suggest. Our projections give Atlanta a plausible path through its running game, while the recent results and ratings offer little reason to treat either the spread or total as a high-confidence market.
Falcons vs. Steelers game details and odds
- Matchup: Atlanta Falcons at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date and time: Sunday, September 13 at 1 p.m. EDT
- Venue: Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
- Spread: Steelers -6 (-110); Falcons +6 (-110)
- Total: 41.5, with over -105 and under -115
Those DraftKings odds were observed at 12:34 a.m. EDT on September 12. Both teams enter Week 1 at 0-0.
Atlanta turns to Cooper Rush
NFL.com reported that Tagovailoa is out with an oblique injury and Rush will start. Penix is also out with a knee injury, while Pittsburgh lists Aaron Rodgers as its starting quarterback. That quarterback injury picture is the clearest reason Pittsburgh is laying six points.
Atlanta also ruled out offensive lineman Cameron Williams and cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. Defensive end Za’Darius Smith is questionable with a shoulder injury, while Pittsburgh cornerback Joey Porter Jr. is questionable with a back issue.
Among the available player markets, Rush has a passing-yards line of 180.5 and a passing-touchdown line of 0.5. Those numbers reflect modest expectations for Atlanta’s passing game, even if the Falcons won’t be able to avoid throwing altogether.
Atlanta’s best counter may be on the ground
Our team projections put Atlanta at about 122 rushing yards on 27 attempts, compared with roughly 108 yards on 24 attempts for Pittsburgh. Bijan Robinson’s markets include 80.5 rushing yards and 120.5 combined rushing and receiving yards, making his workload an important part of Atlanta’s offensive outlook.
The broader yardage estimates are surprisingly close: 317.4 total yards for Atlanta and 313.1 for Pittsburgh. That doesn’t erase the quarterback contrast, but it shows why Atlanta’s path can’t be reduced to asking Rush to trade throws with Rodgers. A productive ground game could keep the Falcons in a manageable script and their best playmakers involved.
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Why the spread and total call for restraint
Pittsburgh carries the quarterback advantage and home field into a market asking it to cover six points. Atlanta, meanwhile, has enough projected rushing production to make the underdog case interesting without making it automatic.
The last 10 games don’t settle much. Both teams went 5-5 straight up and 5-5 against the spread. Seven of Atlanta’s games went over, while six of Pittsburgh’s stayed under. Those opposing profiles leave reasonable arguments on both sides of the 41.5 total.
Our current ratings assign one star of strength to both the spread and total. Pittsburgh’s quarterback advantage remains the central matchup edge, while Atlanta’s projected rushing advantage is the strongest reason to be careful about stretching that edge too far.
For the latest available lines, player markets and matchup analysis, explore the Atlanta Falcons vs. Pittsburgh Steelers matchup.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.