The Raiders open the 2026 season as three-point home favorites despite carrying a 1-9 record from their final 10 games of last season into this matchup. Miami went 6-4 over the same stretch. That contrast makes Sunday’s spread interesting: the market is putting more weight on the teams’ current outlook than on how they finished 2025.
Dolphins vs. Raiders game details
- Matchup: Miami Dolphins at Las Vegas Raiders
- Date and time: Sunday, September 13 at 4:25 p.m. EDT
- Venue: Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada
- Spread: Raiders -3 (-112); Dolphins +3 (-108)
- Total: 40.5, with over -105 and under -115
Those DraftKings odds were observed at 2:00 a.m. EDT on September 12. Both teams enter Week 1 at 0-0.
Why Las Vegas is favored
Our grades give Las Vegas the stronger profile entering the opener. The Raiders carry a B offensive grade and C+ overall grade, compared with a C offense and C- overall mark for Miami. The clearest mismatch is between the Las Vegas offense and a Dolphins defense graded D-.
Our team projections also favor the Raiders in the passing game. Las Vegas is projected for 212.1 passing yards and 318.9 total yards, while Miami is at 181.2 passing yards and 295.7 total yards. The supplied offensive depth charts list Kirk Cousins opposite Malik Willis at quarterback, making the expected passing gap one of the clearest reasons for the line.
Las Vegas does have a significant personnel concern. Raiders coach Klint Kubiak confirmed Friday that Brock Bowers is out with a knee injury for Sunday. His absence matters to the Raiders’ offense, although the available information doesn’t establish how his role will be redistributed.
Miami’s case for staying close
Miami’s last 10 games offer a reasonable counterweight to the current grades. The Dolphins went 6-4 overall and 5-4 against the spread in the nine games with an available spread result. Las Vegas went only 1-9 outright over its final 10 games, though its 5-5 record against the spread was considerably more competitive.
Miami also owns the slightly better rushing projection at 114.5 yards, compared with 106.8 for Las Vegas. If the Dolphins can lean on that area and avoid asking Willis to carry the offense through the air, they have a plausible route to keeping a three-point spread competitive.
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How to read the spread and total
Our current ratings show four-star spread strength and three-star total strength. That fits the shape of the matchup: Las Vegas has the better current grades and passing projection, while Miami’s recent record and projected rushing output keep the spread discussion from being one-sided.
The total presents a less decisive picture. DraftKings is charging a little more for the under at -115, but the available evidence includes competing signals rather than a clean scoring story. The Raiders have the stronger offensive grade, Miami has the weaker defensive grade, and Bowers’ absence adds another variable to the Las Vegas offense.
At Raiders -3, the central question is whether Las Vegas’ stronger present-day profile is enough to outweigh its rough finish last season and a significant absence at tight end. Miami’s path looks narrower, but its recent results and projected rushing production give bettors something concrete to weigh before choosing a side.
For the latest lines, player information, ratings and matchup analysis, visit the Miami Dolphins vs. Las Vegas Raiders matchup page.
Odds and projections are snapshots and can change. Wagering involves risk.