Atlanta’s clearest route to making Thursday night competitive is getting more from its backfield and keeping Michael Penix Jr. out of obvious passing situations. The Falcons have scored only 16 points during an 0-2 start, while Green Bay’s stronger passing outlook helps explain why the Packers are favored by more than a field goal. The matchup comes down to which offense can stay on schedule—and which team can stop giving away possessions and yards.
Atlanta needs its backfield to carry the response
The Falcons are coming off a 34-3 loss to Carolina in which Bijan Robinson rushed for 72 yards and Atlanta committed five turnovers. Penix was inactive for that game, but he’s listed as the starting quarterback on the current offensive depth chart, with Drake London, Kyle Pitts Sr. and Robinson in their primary roles. That puts Atlanta’s main playmakers back around the quarterback expected to lead the offense, but it doesn’t lessen the need for a productive running game.
Our projections put Atlanta at about 325 total yards, including roughly 126 on the ground and 200 through the air. Green Bay projects closer to 366 total yards, with approximately 249 passing yards. Atlanta holds the modest rushing edge, while the Packers have the clearer advantage through the air. Extending drives with Robinson and avoiding a game that rests entirely on Penix’s arm would help the Falcons narrow that gap.
The latest injury report also presents concerns for both teams. Atlanta defensive end Samson Ebukam is out with a hamstring injury, while cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. is questionable with an Achilles injury. Green Bay will be without wide receiver Jayden Reed because of a neck injury and guard Aaron Banks because of a toe injury, while defensive tackle Javon Hargrave is questionable with a concussion.
Green Bay’s edge comes with an early warning sign
The Packers escaped New York with a 20-17 overtime victory over the Jets, rallying from a 10-point fourth-quarter deficit. Jordan Love threw two touchdown passes, but Green Bay also had 14 accepted penalties for 133 yards after being flagged 12 times in its opener. That’s a meaningful counterweight for a team expected to win by more than a field goal.
Both teams have failed to cover in their first two games, so the early results don’t offer much comfort on either side of the spread. The latest DraftKings spread has Green Bay favored by 5.5 points, with the Packers at -105 and Atlanta at -115. That price asks Green Bay to turn its passing advantage and home-field setting into sustained control rather than another uneven performance.
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What matters most
Green Bay has the stronger passing outlook, but its penalty problems have repeatedly disrupted drives and handed away field position. Atlanta’s best counter is a backfield capable of producing the steadier rushing output in this matchup, provided the Falcons protect the ball and avoid falling behind early. If Green Bay cleans up its mistakes and forces Penix into a pass-heavy comeback, the game moves toward the Packers’ biggest advantage. If Robinson keeps Atlanta on schedule, covering 5.5 points becomes a more demanding assignment.
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