The Yankees scored 18 runs in their two-game Wild Card sweep of Boston. Carrying that hitting into an ALDS opener against Drew Rasmussen is a different challenge. Tampa Bay is a modest moneyline favorite, but Gerrit Cole gives New York a meaningful counterweight. The matchup turns on whether the Yankees can keep making their contact count against a new pitching test.
The sweep is a starting point, not the whole picture
Cody Bellinger homered and drove in four runs in New York’s 9-2 series-clinching win, and the Yankees hit .382 across the two games. That’s an impressive start to October, even if two games against Boston don’t settle how they’ll fare against Rasmussen.
Across their last 10 games, the Yankees are 6-4 and the Rays are 5-5. New York won three of their four recent meetings, although Tampa Bay took the season series 7-6. The recent results give the Yankees something to build on without making this look like a one-sided matchup.
Aaron Judge’s calf injury remains relevant to New York’s lineup. He’s on the 10-day injured list, and ESPN reported Friday that the Yankees hadn’t decided whether he’d be on their ALDS roster. The sweep showed New York could produce without him, but his availability still matters when assessing these bats.
Pitching and the quality of contact
Our grades give both lineups a B, with New York earning an A for pitching and Tampa Bay an A-. Those team evaluations make pitching a strength on both sides, with a slight grading edge for the Yankees rather than a clear separation between the lineups.
The pitcher strikeout lines add a more specific lens: Rasmussen’s line is 6.5, compared with Cole’s 5.5. Rasmussen’s ability to interrupt New York’s productive at-bats is a central part of Tampa Bay’s case; Cole’s challenge is keeping the Rays from stringing their contact together.
Our hit and total-base projections put Tampa Bay at roughly seven hits and New York at six, while both teams are near 11 total bases. That makes the comparison more interesting than the hit counts alone. The Rays have the higher hit projection, but little separation in total bases; New York’s contact could still carry comparable weight.
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What the moneyline asks of Tampa Bay
DraftKings’ moneyline prices are -135 for Tampa Bay and +112 for New York. The Rays carry the favorite’s price after a 98-64 regular season, but the Yankees’ stronger pitching grade and recent hitting give the underdog a credible counterweight. The seven-run total also sets a lower scoring bar than either game in New York’s Wild Card sweep.
Tampa Bay’s strongest case is Rasmussen breaking up the Yankees’ rallies while the Rays turn their higher hit projection into sustained innings. New York answers with Cole, a stronger team pitching grade and bats that just delivered twice in October. With projected total bases nearly even, the quality and timing of contact matter more here than momentum alone.
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