Philadelphia needs to find more offense, and Ottawa presents a tough place to start. The Flyers have scored two goals or fewer in each of their first four games, while the Senators have scored at least three in each of their first three. This matchup turns on whether Philadelphia can close that scoring gap—or keep the game tight enough that it doesn’t need a big night from its forwards.
The Flyers need more than a close game
Philadelphia lost 4-1 at Tampa Bay on Monday, with Tyson Foerster scoring its only goal and Dan Vladar making 32 saves. That followed consecutive 3-2 losses to New Jersey and Carolina. The Flyers have been close in some of these games, but they haven’t produced enough scoring to turn those opportunities into wins.
Ottawa has shown more scoring punch: it beat Toronto 3-2 and Boston 4-1 before losing 5-3 at Detroit on Tuesday. That latest result is the counterweight to the Senators’ stronger start. Three goals weren’t enough when they allowed five, leaving Philadelphia a plausible route into this matchup if its finishing improves.
More shots for Ottawa, but a goalie concern matters
Our shot projections call for roughly 29 shots from Ottawa and 24 from Philadelphia. That’s a meaningful difference in expected shooting volume, particularly for a Flyers team that has struggled to score. It puts the focus on whether Philadelphia can make more of its opportunities rather than simply matching Ottawa shot for shot.
We also give Ottawa’s attack a B grade compared with Philadelphia’s D+, reinforcing the scoring contrast. But the Senators have an important concern at the other end: Linus Ullmark is day-to-day with an undisclosed injury. His availability matters to Ottawa’s goaltending outlook and deserves attention before placing a bet.
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What the moneyline asks of bettors
The DraftKings moneyline makes Ottawa a -148 favorite, with Philadelphia at +124. The Senators’ stronger early scoring and higher shot projection support the case for Ottawa at that price. Still, paying a favorite’s price requires more than identifying the stronger attack; Ottawa’s five goals allowed at Detroit and Ullmark’s injury are meaningful considerations.
The 5.5-goal total adds another wrinkle. Philadelphia’s limited scoring makes a lower-scoring game easy to picture, but Ottawa’s latest result shows how quickly the scoring environment can change when goals come at both ends.
Ottawa has the stronger attacking case here: its early scoring, our attack grades and the expected shot-volume gap all point to a tougher offensive test for Philadelphia. The Detroit loss and Ullmark’s injury keep that advantage from settling the matchup. For the Flyers, the key is turning a smaller supply of shots into enough goals while keeping Ottawa’s scoring manageable.
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