Calgary needs more than a better defensive night against Colorado—it needs some scoring help. The Flames have scored just once in each of their first three games, and now they face an Avalanche team that opened with eight- and six-goal performances before losing in Winnipeg. Colorado has the stronger attacking case, but Thursday’s matchup comes with a wrinkle: the Avalanche are playing for the second straight night, while Calgary has been off since Sunday.
Calgary’s scoring problem is the starting point
The Flames have opened 0-3, losing 6-1 to Seattle, 4-1 to Vancouver and then 6-1 to Seattle again. Across those first three games, that’s three goals scored and 16 allowed. It’s a small sample, but the immediate challenge is clear: Calgary hasn’t scored enough to give itself much room for mistakes.
Our grades reinforce that concern. We give Calgary’s attack a D compared with Colorado’s A+. Nathan MacKinnon centers an Avalanche top line with Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas; Calgary counters with Morgan Frost between Matvei Gridin and Matt Coronato. For the Flames, getting production from that group would ease the burden on Dustin Wolf rather than asking their goalie to carry the entire night.
Colorado has the volume edge, but less rest
Our shot projections put Colorado at about 34 shots and Calgary at about 28. That’s a meaningful difference in expected shooting volume and points toward a busier night for Wolf. Calgary’s route to keeping this competitive includes strong goaltending and making more of its own opportunities, rather than simply matching Colorado shot for shot.
The schedule offers Calgary a counterweight. Colorado lost 3-2 in Winnipeg on Wednesday and finishes its back-to-back in Calgary. The Flames last played Sunday. That extra recovery time is a useful advantage for Calgary, even though it doesn’t erase the gap between the teams’ attacks.
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A strong favorite still comes at a price
Colorado is a -238 favorite in DraftKings’ moneyline market, while Calgary is +195. The Avalanche’s attacking grade and expected shot advantage fit their favorite status. But at -238, backing Colorado means risking $238 to win $100 in profit, so identifying the stronger team is only the first step in judging the bet.
Colorado has the stronger attacking case, supported by its early scoring, our grades and the expected shot-volume gap. Short rest is the main counterweight, giving Calgary an opening that it still needs to turn into goals. Strong goaltending can help the Flames stay close, but after three consecutive one-goal outings, more scoring support for Wolf is the factor that matters most to their chances of changing this matchup.
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