Buffalo finally got its scoring going again Monday, but the rebound came with a cost: captain Rasmus Dahlin is out with an upper-body injury. Building on that five-goal afternoon gets harder without him, especially against a rested Montreal team. The Canadiens are favored, though our projections suggest Buffalo can keep up in shooting volume—a useful counterweight to Montreal’s edge in the odds.
Buffalo’s rebound has something to build on
The Sabres beat Florida 5-3 on Monday after scoring just once across their losses to Dallas and Utah. Noah Ostlund supplied the go-ahead power-play goal, while Tage Thompson and Josh Doan also scored. Buffalo converted two of five power plays after opening the season 1-for-17. That’s an encouraging response, but the earlier struggles make it hard to treat one productive afternoon as a settled turnaround.
Dahlin scored before leaving that game. Heather Engel of NHL.com reports that he’s ruled out against Montreal, making his absence the significant personnel change here. Buffalo also has a quick turnaround after playing Monday afternoon, while Montreal last played Saturday.
How much separation does Montreal’s price suggest?
The DraftKings moneyline has Montreal at -155 and Buffalo at +130. Our team evaluations are closer than that favorite-underdog split might suggest: both clubs receive a B for their attack and a C+ defensively. Those grades give neither team a clear advantage on their own, while Montreal’s extra rest and Dahlin’s absence remain important context for the price.
Our shooting projections also give Buffalo a slight volume edge, at about 28 shots to Montreal’s 26. That offers a plausible route for the Sabres to stay competitive even without Dahlin. It’s a modest difference, though, and it says more about expected shots than the quality of those chances.
Montreal’s latest win provides an important distinction. The Canadiens edged Detroit 1-0 in a shootout Saturday, with Jacob Fowler making 30 saves. That shutout belonged to Fowler; the expected goalie matchup here is Jakub Dobes against Buffalo’s Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen.
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The 6.5 total needs a closer look at the goalies
Neither expected goalie brings a strong recent save percentage into this matchup. Luukkonen stopped 81.2% of shots across his four most recent appearances, while Dobes stopped 85.7% across his three most recent appearances, all from this season. Both samples include relief work, so they offer an early look rather than a settled assessment. Luukkonen’s latest outing was a better one: he saved 13 of 14 shots in relief against Florida.
Those recent results give the 6.5-goal total a credible scoring argument despite Montreal’s shutout win. The Canadiens allowed five or more goals in each of their three games before Saturday, and Buffalo just rediscovered some power-play production. The counterweight is opportunity volume: our projections call for roughly three power plays per team and a fairly modest shooting workload. There’s reason to watch the goalies closely, but not to assume Monday’s Buffalo scoring burst will repeat.
Montreal’s favorite status comes with meaningful uncertainty: our equal team grades and Buffalo’s small projected shot advantage point to a competitive matchup, while the Sabres must follow up Monday’s win without Dahlin and with less rest. At 6.5, the expected goalies’ recent struggles matter more than Fowler’s shutout, but modest projected shot volume and Buffalo’s preceding scoring drought temper the scoring case. The key is how well Luukkonen and Dobes handle that workload—not simply whether the teams’ latest final scores looked high or low.
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