Purdue just delivered its most convincing win of the season, while Washington is trying to shake off three straight losses. The biggest question Friday is whether the Boilermakers can carry their rushing success into a matchup with a Huskies defense that struggled badly against Iowa. Purdue is a 3.5-point favorite, but our projections give Washington a meaningful counterargument: the Huskies have the higher expected yardage output.
Purdue has a clear place to start
Fame Ijeboi ran for 195 yards and three touchdowns as Purdue beat Minnesota 41-13 on Saturday. Quarterback Ryan Browne added 81 rushing yards and another touchdown on seven carries. That gave the Boilermakers two productive runners rather than leaving everything to their passing game.
Washington’s previous game makes that especially relevant. Iowa beat the Huskies 41-24 on Friday behind Kamari Moulton’s 208 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Washington also finished with minus-3 rushing yards and allowed six sacks. The trouble wasn’t confined to stopping the run; the Huskies struggled to establish their own ground game, too.
Still, our rushing projections don’t anticipate a repeat of Purdue’s explosion. We project roughly 120 rushing yards for each team, with Washington ahead in total yardage at about 370 to Purdue’s 335. That gives the Huskies a plausible route back into contention: restore some rushing production and avoid another game in which their opponent has such a large advantage on the ground.
Washington’s quarterback uncertainty matters
Demond Williams Jr.’s availability is an important part of that picture. A Wednesday report from Yahoo Sports described the Washington quarterback as uncertain because of a rib injury. His availability matters to how much confidence we can place in the Huskies’ offensive rebound.
Washington did get production from Elijah Brown after Williams left the Iowa game: Brown completed 28 of 39 passes for 251 yards and three touchdowns. That was an encouraging response, though Iowa had already built a 27-0 lead before Washington scored, and Brown’s final touchdown pass came on the last play. His performance showed the passing game could still produce, but it wasn’t evidence that Washington had solved the problems that put it so far behind.
The betting history also explains why Washington has something to prove beyond its 3-3 record. Spread bets against the Huskies have won five of six times this season, producing a historical profit of 3.51 units on flat one-unit bets. Washington’s lone cover came in a four-point loss at USC—a reminder that losing outright and disappointing bettors aren’t always the same thing.
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A more complicated picture at 52.5
Five of Purdue's six games this season have gone over their posted totals. But its past two wins also featured a much tighter scoring allowance: 17 points against Illinois and 13 against Minnesota. At the current total of 52.5, Purdue’s recent defensive improvement is a real counterweight to that season-long over history.
Washington’s quarterback uncertainty and our more restrained rushing outlook for Purdue make it harder to simply carry last week’s scoring forward. The most useful distinction is between Purdue having an appealing matchup on the ground and assuming that matchup will produce another 41-point performance. Washington’s ability to sustain the passing production Brown provided, rather than relying on late scoring while trailing heavily, is another important part of the scoring outlook.
The matchup to watch
Purdue’s strongest case is its recent ability to run effectively while keeping opponents’ scoring down. Washington’s counterweight is a projected yardage advantage and evidence that its passing game could still produce after a difficult start last week, although much of that production came with Iowa well ahead. The key is how much the Huskies can narrow the rushing gap: doing so would make this a tougher assignment for a favorite laying more than a field goal. Purdue’s ground game has the clearest recent evidence behind it, but our projections suggest the Boilermakers will need more than a repeat of Washington’s struggles to create the same separation they enjoyed against Minnesota.
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