Toronto finally stopped its losing streak. Columbus is still trying to get its scoring going. That makes Tuesday’s Maple Leafs–Blue Jackets matchup interesting: the home favorite has some advantages in our analysis, but it has scored just once in each of its last two games. Toronto has a chance to build on Monday’s win—and very little time between games.
Columbus has the edge on paper, but the price asks for more
The DraftKings moneyline puts Columbus at -162 and Toronto at +136. Our grades favor Columbus, too: the Blue Jackets rate B- overall against Toronto’s C, with a smaller advantage on offense, B versus B-. Our shooting projections also give Columbus the higher volume, about 29 shots on goal to Toronto’s 26. That gives Columbus more chances to work with, though it doesn’t tell us how dangerous those shots will be.
The counterweight is Columbus’s recent production. The Blue Jackets beat the Rangers 1-0 on Saturday, then lost 2-1 at Minnesota on Sunday. They’ve won three of their last seven games, all played this season. Their favorable matchup assessment comes with a practical question: can they generate more offense than they managed over the weekend?
Toronto has a more encouraging result to carry into this one. Auston Matthews had a goal and two assists as the Leafs beat San Jose 3-1 on Monday, ending a three-game slide. Toronto scored twice on the power play. That gives the Leafs something specific to build on, although they’ve still won just four of their last 10 games and now travel to Columbus for the second night of a back-to-back.
The 6.5 total has competing goalie stories
Monday’s win came with Sergei Bobrovsky in Toronto’s net. Anthony Stolarz starts this matchup, and his recent results in net have been rougher: he allowed nine goals across his last two appearances. In three appearances this season, he has stopped 87.5% of the shots he’s faced. That gives Columbus an opening to improve on its recent scoring, even if its attack hasn’t offered much encouragement over the last two games.
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At the other end, Jet Greaves is expected to start for Columbus. He stopped all 29 shots he faced against the Rangers on Saturday. His five most recent appearances, including a relief outing, carry a .905 save percentage—a less dominant picture than that latest shutout alone suggests.
Those details pull in different directions around the posted total of 6.5. Columbus’s recent low-scoring games and Greaves’s shutout support a more restrained outlook; Stolarz’s recent goals allowed and Toronto’s productive power play Monday provide the counterweight. Our projections call for roughly two to three power-play opportunities per team, leaving neither side with a projected advantage in the number of chances.
What matters most
Columbus’s higher shooting projection and stronger team grades give substance to its favorite status, but the -162 price makes its recent scoring hard to overlook. Stolarz’s struggles offer a reason for the Blue Jackets to improve; their two straight one-goal performances are the reason not to assume they will. Toronto’s response through Matthews and the power play keeps the matchup competitive, even with a quick turnaround and a change in net. The clearest test for both the favorite’s price and the 6.5 total is whether Columbus can turn its projected shooting advantage into a genuine scoring rebound.
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