Colorado and New Jersey are priced evenly for Tuesday night’s matchup, but they arrive with different advantages. Our analysis rates the Avalanche more highly and projects more shots from their skaters. The Devils have the more forgiving schedule: Colorado played in Philadelphia on Monday, while New Jersey hasn’t played since Saturday. That makes this a useful test of how much weight to give the stronger team evaluation when the other side has had more time between games.
Colorado’s stronger evaluation meets a schedule disadvantage
DraftKings has both teams at -110 in the current moneyline odds. Against that even pricing, our grades show a clear separation: Colorado earns an A+ overall, compared with New Jersey’s B-. The biggest difference is up front, where we give the Avalanche an A+ offensive grade and the Devils a C+.
There are familiar names behind Colorado’s attack, with Nathan MacKinnon centering Artturi Lehkonen and Martin Necas. Our shot projections put the Avalanche at about 33, compared with 30 for New Jersey. That’s a modest shooting-volume advantage, rather than a measure of how dangerous those opportunities will be.
The immediate counterweight is the turnaround. Colorado lost 3-2 to Philadelphia on Monday, with Necas and T.J. Hughes scoring. New Jersey last played Saturday, losing 4-2 to Washington. The schedule gives the Devils a plausible way to narrow the matchup, though it doesn’t tell us how sharply either team will play.
New Jersey has also shown a higher scoring ceiling than its offensive grade might suggest. In its last three games, it beat Detroit 5-4 and the Rangers 7-1 before scoring twice against Washington. Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt skate together on one forward line, while Nico Hischier and Timo Meier give the Devils another group for Colorado to handle.
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The 6.5-goal total has competing pressures
Colorado’s attacking grade and projected shooting edge matter against a total of 6.5, especially if New Jersey turns to Jake Allen. Across his five most recent appearances this season, Allen has stopped 87.6% of the shots he faced and allowed four goals in each of his last two outings. That gives the Avalanche’s expected volume added relevance to the scoring outlook.
Colorado counters with Scott Wedgewood, who has a 90.2% save percentage across his two recent appearances this season. That’s a much smaller sample, but his results provide a counterweight to Allen’s struggles. Wedgewood also didn’t play in Monday’s loss; Mackenzie Blackwood was in net, so Colorado’s back-to-back doesn’t mean consecutive starts for its goalie. We rate Colorado’s team defense A-, compared with New Jersey’s B.
The recent scoring results pull in both directions, too. Five of Colorado’s last nine games this season went over their posted totals, yet three of its last four stayed under. New Jersey’s last eight games this season are split evenly between overs and unders. At 6.5, Colorado’s attacking outlook and Allen’s recent struggles create upward pressure, balanced by a stronger Colorado defensive evaluation and mixed recent totals results. The Avalanche’s quick turnaround adds another uncertainty rather than a clear scoring signal. This isn’t an automatic high-scoring matchup.
What matters most
At an even moneyline, Colorado’s stronger evaluation and modest projected shooting edge make a substantive case worth weighing. New Jersey’s extra rest and recent five- and seven-goal performances are the strongest reasons not to let the grades settle the argument. The key is whether Colorado can maintain that shooting advantage on consecutive nights, with a rested Wedgewood behind it. A smaller volume gap would weaken one of the clearest parts of the Avalanche’s case and give the Devils’ schedule advantage more weight.
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