The Kings don’t need another reminder that they’re winless. They need goals—and Washington presents a tough place to find them. Los Angeles has scored exactly once in four straight games, while the Capitals have started 5-3-0. Our projections suggest a much closer split in shooting volume than those contrasting records might imply. The useful question is whether the Kings can turn a competitive share of shots into the scoring they’ve been missing.
A quick start hasn’t been enough
Los Angeles showed how little margin its scoring drought leaves in Saturday’s 4-1 loss to Boston. Alex Laferriere scored 31 seconds into the game off an Adrian Kempe pass, yet the Kings never scored again. Boston broke a 1-1 tie with 6:24 remaining before adding two empty-net goals. The final score was lopsided; the game was still within reach until the closing minutes.
That distinction matters against a Washington team priced at -162 on the DraftKings moneyline, with Los Angeles at +136. Our data shows that betting one unit against the Kings in each of their six games this season returned a historical profit of 4.70 units. Their struggles have translated into betting results, but Tuesday’s price still deserves its own assessment.
Our shot projections put the Kings at about 28 shots and Washington at about 27. That’s a competitive volume outlook for Los Angeles, though it doesn’t establish an advantage in chance quality. We give the Kings’ attack a C-, so the nearly even shooting outlook isn’t enough on its own to dismiss their scoring problems.
The goalies complicate the 5.5 total
Logan Thompson and Darcy Kuemper are the expected goalies, and their recent appearances offer different reasons for caution around the posted total of 5.5.
Thompson has a .903 save percentage across his five most recent appearances. He stopped 29 of 31 shots in Washington’s 4-2 win over New Jersey on Saturday, backing a scoring effort that included goals from Ilya Protas and Dylan Strome. That’s a difficult backdrop for an opponent trying to escape a one-goal rut.
Kuemper’s four-appearance sample this season is more uneven. His .847 save percentage includes eight goals allowed against Colorado and three on seven shots in 20 minutes against Edmonton. But he also stopped 30 of 32 shots against Vegas and 28 of 30 against Florida. We rate Los Angeles’ defense highly at A-, giving the Kings a plausible route to keeping Washington close, though Kuemper’s uneven results are an important counterweight.
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At 5.5, the total brings those competing factors together. Los Angeles’ scoring drought and Thompson’s recent work point toward a restrained game. Washington’s nine goals across its last two games and Kuemper’s rougher outings push back against that picture. We project about three power-play opportunities apiece, leaving neither team with a meaningful projected advantage in the number of chances with the extra skater.
Washington also has a personnel update to watch: Matt Roy's lower-body injury. The defenseman is on injured reserve, although Tarik El-Bashir of Monumental Sports Network reported Monday that he could return against the Kings.
What matters most
Washington has the stronger recent scoring case and steadier recent goaltending. Los Angeles’ counterargument is that this needn’t be a one-sided game in shot volume, and our defensive assessment remains strong. For the Kings, the key is getting more production from that competitive shooting outlook rather than needing another tight, low-scoring game to stay within reach. At 5.5, Kuemper’s range of recent performances is the main complication: his stronger outings support a close game, while his rougher ones show why Los Angeles’ scoring drought can’t carry the entire totals argument.
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