Tyrese Haliburton’s return gives Indiana a compelling opening-night story, but the Pacers’ visit to New Orleans is more complicated than a comeback celebration. Indiana is a 3.5-point favorite for Wednesday’s season opener, while our grades favor the Pelicans’ offense. The central question is whether the Pacers’ playmaking and outside shooting can outweigh New Orleans’ stronger offensive assessment and rebounding outlook.
What Haliburton changes—and what Indiana is missing
Haliburton is back after missing last season, and the Pacers’ official preview highlights his productive three-game preseason. That gives Indiana a different starting point from the team that finished last spring, though the opener is its first regular-season test.
Our projections put Indiana at roughly 29 assists compared with 27 for New Orleans, along with about 14 made threes to the Pelicans’ 12. Those expected outputs give the Pacers a plausible route to success: turn their passing into enough perimeter production to offset advantages elsewhere.
Indiana will be without Aaron Nesmith and T.J. McConnell, both ruled out for this game with hamstring injuries. Nesmith’s absence removes a starting option, and McConnell is also unavailable in the backcourt. Haliburton’s return therefore comes alongside two other personnel losses, rather than a fully intact supporting group.
New Orleans has a real counterargument
We give the Pelicans’ offense a B compared with Indiana’s C. Our rebounding projections also favor New Orleans, roughly 44 to 41. Together, those assessments explain why this is a meaningful test for the road favorite: Indiana’s projected advantage in assists and threes sits opposite a stronger overall offensive evaluation and a rebounding deficit.
There’s also some useful historical betting context. Over the past year, New Orleans covered in 44 of 82 games, returning a profit of 2.42 units from flat one-unit spread bets. That’s a modest positive return across an 82-game sample. It doesn’t make today’s underdog price an automatic bargain, but it’s a useful reminder to separate a team’s reputation from how it performs against the number.
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How to read the 239.5 total
DraftKings’ total of 239.5 asks for substantial scoring, and our defensive grades give that outlook some support: Indiana earns a D+ and New Orleans a D. Neither receives a strong assessment on that side of the ball, while the Pelicans bring the better offensive grade.
The counterweight is Indiana’s C-rated offense. Its projected passing and three-point production offer a path to keeping the scoring elevated, but this isn’t simply two highly rated attacks facing weak defenses. At this total, how effectively Indiana turns its playmaking into scoring matters more than leaning on New Orleans’ offensive grade alone.
The opening-night takeaway
The strongest case for Indiana is its projected edge in passing and perimeter production, not Haliburton’s return alone. New Orleans counters with the better offensive grade and rebounding outlook, while Nesmith and McConnell’s absences complicate Indiana’s opener. For bettors evaluating the road favorite, the most useful test is whether the Pacers can turn those playmaking strengths into enough offensive production to offset the Pelicans’ advantages. That same question matters at a total that already demands a strong scoring night.
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