LSU and Auburn arrive with impressive wins built around very different quarterback performances. Sam Leavitt picked apart Mississippi State through the air, while Byrum Brown powered Auburn’s upset of Georgia on the ground. LSU is a 7.5-point road favorite, but our projections suggest these teams could produce almost identical yardage. The question is whether LSU’s passing efficiency can create enough separation against an Auburn team with a dangerous running quarterback.
Leavitt’s clean game meets Brown’s physical approach
Leavitt completed 31 of 38 passes for 289 yards and four touchdowns as LSU beat Mississippi State 31-0 on Saturday. He connected with nine receivers and finished without a turnover for the first time this season. That last detail matters: he had thrown eight interceptions across LSU’s first six games. His latest performance showed how effective this passing game can be when it avoids those mistakes.
Brown gave Auburn a different kind of advantage in its 27-24 win at then-No. 1 Georgia, rushing 26 times for 115 yards and a touchdown. He added 150 passing yards and a scoring pass, while Jeremiah Cobb contributed 61 rushing yards. Auburn recovered from a 14-0 deficit rather than relying on an early lead to keep running.
There’s an important counterweight to that upset, though. Georgia committed three turnovers, including a late fumble that gave Auburn possession before the winning field goal. Brown’s heavy rushing workload gives Auburn a concrete approach to build on; another three-turnover assist is harder to count on.
Similar yardage, a meaningful spread
Our team projections put both teams at about 370 total yards, with LSU leaning more on the pass and Auburn more on the run. We project roughly 240 passing yards for LSU and 170 rushing yards for Auburn. That gives each team a credible way to move the ball, rather than suggesting a one-sided matchup between the chains.
For LSU to justify a spread beyond a touchdown, the useful question is how efficiently it turns those opportunities into points—and whether Leavitt can carry last week’s ball security on the road. Auburn’s path to keeping the game close starts with Brown sustaining the ground game and keeping drives alive, rather than counting on LSU to supply the same mistakes Georgia did.
The teams’ recent betting results also offer a reason not to equate a good win with an easy cover. Across the seven LSU games and six Auburn games this season, LSU has covered three times and Auburn twice. Both delivered last week, but neither has consistently beaten the spread.
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What matters at a total of 51.5
The 51.5-point total puts the focus on how drives end. LSU’s shutout was impressive, but Mississippi State reached inside the LSU 40 five times and came away empty after failed fourth-down attempts. Auburn’s win, meanwhile, included three Georgia giveaways. Those results show how strongly possession-ending plays shaped last week’s scores, even when teams could move the ball.
The totals results pull in different directions: four of Auburn’s six games this season have gone under, while four of LSU’s seven have gone over. Against that mixed backdrop, Leavitt’s accuracy and Brown’s rushing production provide credible scoring routes. Turnovers complicate the picture at 51.5: they can erase a promising drive or give the other offense a shorter field. That makes last week’s shutout and upset score less useful on their own than the way each offense sustains and finishes its possessions.
LSU’s strongest case for separation is another efficient, turnover-free passing performance. Auburn’s clearest answer is Brown’s ability to generate offense on the ground, supported by projections that leave little gap in overall yardage. The distinction to watch is whether LSU can turn comparable production into more productive possessions. Auburn’s rushing threat makes that separation something LSU has to earn, not something its favorite status establishes.
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