Florida’s attack has caught fire, but Ottawa offers a different kind of test. The Panthers have scored 18 goals during a three-game winning streak, while the Senators’ expected starter, Linus Ullmark, has allowed just seven goals across his last five appearances. Florida brings plenty of scoring momentum; Ullmark gives Ottawa a strong reason to believe it can cool things down.
Florida brings more than one hot scorer
The Panthers beat Seattle 8-3 on Saturday, with Carter Verhaeghe and Sam Bennett each scoring a hat trick. Matthew Tkachuk added three assists. That followed a 3-2 win over Vancouver on Thursday and a 7-3 victory over Columbus on Tuesday. Florida’s three-game winning streak has showcased its scoring ceiling without every game turning into a high-scoring affair.
Ullmark is the strongest counterweight to that momentum. He has stopped 118 of 125 shots in his last five appearances, a .944 save percentage, and allowed no more than two goals in any of them. Even in Ottawa’s 3-1 loss to Philadelphia on Saturday, he made 25 saves; the Flyers’ final goal went into an empty net.
Our shot projections put both teams at about 28 shots. That suggests a fairly even shooting workload rather than a clear volume advantage for Florida. The Panthers’ recent scoring is encouraging, but Ullmark’s recent work makes another eight-goal outburst a poor baseline for judging this matchup.
A close moneyline, with a meaningful goalie contrast
The DraftKings moneyline has Ottawa at -112 and Florida at -108, leaving very little separation between the teams. The Senators’ case rests partly on Ullmark maintaining his recent level; Florida’s rests on carrying its scoring momentum into a matchup our projections see as close in shot volume.
There’s an important complication on the other end. Florida starter Akira Schmid has an .876 save percentage across his four most recent appearances, allowing 12 goals on 97 shots. That’s a small sample, but it gives Ottawa a more encouraging recent goaltending comparison than the Panthers’ winning streak alone would suggest. Our grades still rate Florida’s team defense highly at A-, compared with Ottawa’s B+, so Schmid’s recent numbers aren’t the whole picture. We also rate Ottawa’s offense B against Florida’s C, a reminder that the Panthers’ recent burst isn’t the only measure of these attacks.
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Why 5.5 goals deserves a closer look
The posted total of 5.5 sits between two competing stories. Florida’s recent scoring and Schmid’s save percentage give reasons to expect goals. Ullmark’s run and Ottawa’s results point toward a tighter game: seven of the Senators’ nine games this season have finished Under their posted totals. Florida has also gone Under in five of nine, despite its recent offensive bursts.
Those Under records came against different totals, which matters here: two of Florida’s three recent wins carried a 6.5 line. Ottawa’s record is more closely aligned with today’s threshold, with six of its seven Unders coming against 5.5. That gives its lower-scoring results useful context, while Schmid’s recent numbers and Florida’s hot scorers keep the outlook from being one-sided.
The clearest takeaway is to separate Florida’s scoring ceiling from what it can sustain against Ullmark. With similar projected shot volume, the Panthers have no obvious workload advantage to lean on if their finishing cools. Ottawa’s recent goaltending is the strongest check on the scoring surge, but Schmid’s smaller, weaker sample leaves room for the Senators’ attack to shape the game too. At a near-even moneyline and a 5.5 total, the goalie contrast deserves more weight than Florida’s 18-goal headline alone.
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