Texas is still getting the benefit of the doubt, but Ole Miss brings a pretty direct test of whether that’s deserved. The Longhorns are 3.5-point favorites after consecutive losses, while the Rebels just paired a productive ground game with a commanding defensive performance. Texas needs to get its offense back on track while slowing an Ole Miss team that can move the ball through the air and on the ground.
Texas needs more than a better finish
Texas lost 27-24 to Florida on Saturday after leading 17-3. More concerning than the final score was how the offense got there: Florida held the Longhorns below 300 yards and sacked Arch Manning five times, with the last sack forcing a fumble on Texas’ final possession. Better protection is an immediate priority against a Rebels defense coming off a strong outing.
The betting results show that Texas’ struggles haven’t been limited to its two outright losses. Opponents have covered the spread in five of the Longhorns’ six games this season. Flat one-unit bets against Texas in those six games would have returned a historical profit of 3.44 units. That’s a useful distinction for this matchup: Texas has won four games, but it has rarely delivered the margin its past prices demanded.
There’s still a substantial case for the Longhorns in our matchup evaluations. Our grades give both offenses an A, with Texas holding the stronger defensive evaluation, A+ to Ole Miss’ B+. That gives Texas a credible route to a rebound through slowing the Rebels, rather than needing Manning and the offense to carry the whole evening. But that defense also allowed Florida scoring drives of 15 and 14 plays in the second half, so sustaining stops is part of the repair job, too.
Ole Miss can make Texas defend more than the pass
Ole Miss beat Missouri 31-3 on Saturday, with Trinidad Chambliss throwing three touchdown passes and running for another. The Rebels also rushed for 257 yards, including 122 on 16 carries from Kewan Lacy. That balance is the more interesting challenge for Texas than the lopsided score alone.
Our yardage projections give Ole Miss about 420 total yards to Texas’ 380, including roughly 160 rushing yards for the Rebels and 130 for the Longhorns. The defensive grades favor Texas, but we still anticipate meaningful production from Ole Miss’ ground game. Sustaining that production would give the Rebels a way to build drives without leaning entirely on Chambliss’ passing.
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What matters around the 53.5-point total
The scoring outlook has pressure in both directions. Texas has scored 24 points in each of its last two games, and its protection problems are a concrete obstacle to a more productive night. Ole Miss, meanwhile, held Missouri to 39 rushing yards on 26 attempts. If the Rebels make Texas similarly dependent on its passing game, the Longhorns will need a much cleaner performance up front.
But there’s also enough attacking quality here to challenge a 53.5-point total. Ole Miss scored 52 against Vanderbilt before beating Missouri, and our projections anticipate substantial yardage against the higher-graded Texas defense. Texas also has an opening through the air: Missouri threw for 339 yards against Ole Miss, even though it scored only three points. That result shows both why the Rebels’ latest defensive scoreline deserves some context and why productive drives don’t always turn into points.
At this total, the useful tension is between Ole Miss’ balanced production and Texas’ recent difficulty sustaining offense. Better protection would give the Longhorns a chance to exploit the passing opportunities Missouri found; another sack-heavy game would make that much harder.
The matchup to watch
Texas’ strongest case is its defensive quality; Ole Miss’ counterweight is a balanced attack that our projections expect to keep producing. For the Longhorns to justify favoritism, slowing the Rebels’ running game needs to come alongside better protection for Manning. Texas’ recent spread results make the distinction important: a rebound has to produce separation, not just a better final result. How well the Longhorns hold up on those two fronts is the clearest test of whether their defensive advantage can translate into control of this matchup.
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