Calgary’s latest upset offers a reason to look beyond its 2-6-0 start, but the performance in net isn’t something the Flames can simply carry forward. Devin Cooley made 34 saves in that win; Dustin Wolf is expected against Minnesota, and his recent results have been much rougher. Against a 6-2-2 Wild team, that goalie contrast is central to Calgary’s upset chances—and to evaluating a 5.5-goal total.
Calgary’s latest win came with a different goalie
The Flames beat Carolina 3-2 last time out, with Yegor Sharangovich breaking a late tie after Morgan Frost had scored and assisted on the winner. Cooley’s 34 saves were a substantial part of that result. Calgary found enough scoring, but it also needed a strong night in its own net.
Wolf’s recent results offer a tougher backdrop. Across his last five appearances for Calgary this season, he has an .834 save percentage and has allowed at least four goals four times. That doesn’t erase the Flames’ latest win, but it makes another low-scoring victory a more demanding proposition if Wolf starts.
Minnesota’s expected goalie, Jesper Wallstedt, has a .905 save percentage across his last five appearances this season. His results haven’t been uniformly tidy either: he allowed four goals in two of those games, including the Wild’s latest outing. Still, he’s stopped a higher share of the shots he’s faced than Wolf over those five-game samples.
Minnesota has the stronger case, but the price matters
The current DraftKings moneyline makes Minnesota a -205 favorite, with Calgary at +170. The Wild have won six of their last 10 games, and our grades favor their attack, B+ to Calgary’s D. There’s a supported case for Minnesota being the favorite; the harder betting question is whether that advantage is worth the cost.
That distinction shows up in the recent betting history, too. Flat one-unit moneyline bets on Minnesota over the past month returned a profit of just 0.39 units despite six wins in 10 games. Winning regularly and offering an attractive price aren’t the same thing.
The Wild also showed some resilience in their 4-3 overtime loss to Edmonton on Tuesday. Kirill Kaprizov and Ryan Hartman scored in the third period to erase a 3-1 deficit. Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy give Minnesota a dangerous first forward line, but our shooting projections don’t anticipate a huge volume imbalance: we project roughly 29 shots for each team. Calgary’s route to an upset doesn’t require overwhelming Minnesota in volume; it does require a better night of stopping those shots than Wolf has generally delivered lately.
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Why the 5.5-goal total deserves a closer look
The posted total is 5.5, and the evidence pulls in both directions. Wolf’s recent struggles and Minnesota’s stronger attack create scoring pressure. On the other side, Calgary’s low attacking grade and Wallstedt’s better recent save percentage could limit how much the Flames contribute.
Six of Minnesota’s last 10 games finished under their posted totals, but seven of those games carried a 6.5-goal line. That makes the recent under count less persuasive at today’s lower total. Calgary’s scoring also deserves attention: it managed two goals or fewer in five of the eight games in its current-season history. The Flames’ latest three-goal effort is a useful counterweight, but it hasn’t been their typical output in that stretch.
Minnesota’s stronger attack and Wallstedt’s better recent shot-stopping give the favorite the clearer matchup case, while the near-even shooting projections leave Calgary a plausible route to compete. The key is whether Wolf can bring the Flames closer to the goaltending level Cooley supplied against Carolina. At 5.5, a repeat of Wolf’s recent struggles would put pressure on a low-scoring script; Calgary’s limited scoring is the main counterweight. Neither the latest upset nor Minnesota’s recent under count settles the betting question on its own.
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